Comment from millie mill
Time May 28, 2010 at 1:53 PM

This is going to be a good work out session.

Comment from millie mill
Time May 28, 2010 at 1:55 PM

Do you guys think the Wizards will bring over Vladimir Veremeenko and Emir Preldzic this summer? This year they have a real chance of making the team.

For those who don’t know.

Vladimir Veremeenko was Washington Wizards 48th pick in the 2006 NBA Draft

Position: Power forward
Height: 6 ft 11 in (2.11 m)
Weight: 235 lb (107 kg)
Age: 26

PPG: 7.6
RB: 4.1
FGP: 51%
3FG: 40%
FTP: 74%
MPG: 20.6
http://www.eurobasket.com/player.asp?Cntry=RUS&PlayerID=20228

Emir Preldzic was Cleveland Cavaliers 57th overall pick of the 2009 NBA Draft (came to us by the Jamison trade)

Position: SG/SF
Age: 23
Ht: 6-8
Wt: 220

PPG: 6.8
RPG: 4.1
APG: 2.3
SPG: 0.9
2P%: 51.4%
3P%: 18.8%
FT%: 66.7%
MPG: 25.1
http://www.euroleague.net/competition/players/showplayer?pcode=TFH

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time May 28, 2010 at 3:34 PM

All the guys coming in also participated in the multi-team workout in Minneapolis earlier this week. We had people there — maybe even Ernie and/or Flip.

Comment from maggicman11
Time May 28, 2010 at 5:04 PM

I know highlights are never a good way to measure a player because they only show the positives of players and none of the negatives but if u look at this link you can see what i mean when i say he looks like a bully in the post. also notice that even though he is overweight he still runs the floor as well as any big man and his hustle play is also very good.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCZryTYGp6E

Comment from Reuben
Time May 28, 2010 at 6:26 PM

Jarvis Varnardo needs to be our #30 pick if he is still available. This guy is huge, incredible shot blocking ability, although hes raw, I see him as beeing a great player in the future.

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time May 28, 2010 at 7:16 PM

Varnado would also be available at our #35 pick, as far as that goes.

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time May 28, 2010 at 7:17 PM

Derrick Caracter has a lot of ability — he got into trouble w/ his team last year but gives some evidence of having straightened out his attitude. Another 2d round guy. All these guys are round 2 — if that!

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time May 28, 2010 at 9:18 PM

More on round 2 guys — this is from ESPN Insider, quoted on another site:

“(Jordan) Crawford lit it up the first day. He is a terrific scorer, and that stood out among his competition. “No one can get buckets in this group like Crawford can,” one GM said. “He was unstoppable today.” Brackins also made a positive impression. “He was really showing off his face-the-basket game,” one GM said. “If you pair him with a point guard who can really run the pick-and-pop, he could have a long NBA career.”

(Lance) Stephenson continues to impress NBA teams after a strong combine. “As far as guys who just know how to play, he’s it,” one NBA scout said. “He’s going to be great in ‘iso’ situations in the league. If all the red flags about him weren’t there, I’m pretty sure this kid’s a lottery pick. He’s going to tempt a lot of people.”

Lazar Hayward, Sr., F, Marquette: Wes Matthews became a major player for the Utah Jazz this past season, yet he wasn’t drafted. Hayward and Matthews don’t play the same position, but they came from the same school. And it matters. The work ethic out of Marquette is getting a positive vibe from NBA personnel in Chicago and those who were in Minnesota. “He was one of the three best basketball players who participated in the workout,” said one general manager who attended the Minnesota workouts. “He knows how to play. He’s not sexy. But he knows who he is. If you put him on a playoff team that is picking in the 20s, you could plug him in the rotation.” “

Comment from dcbutler357
Time May 28, 2010 at 9:38 PM

wooohooo, celts lead climbing….go lakers!!

Comment from jeffmalone1990
Time May 29, 2010 at 12:39 AM

Look for Vasquez o the roster next year, in this day and age of scouting, the one thing that is the one intagible that sets you apart is HEART. This kid will bring it on both ends of the court

Comment from gray16
Time May 29, 2010 at 11:15 AM

tom, chris paul ran circles around who?…

chris paul’s college numbers (freshman year):

14.8 ppg, 5.9 apg, 3.3 rpg, 2.7 spg, 49.6 fg%

wall:

16.6 ppg, 6.5 apg, 4.3 rpg, 1.8 spg, 46.1 fg%

so again i ask, ran circles around who?…

even chris paul’s soph year stats:

15.3 ppg, 6.6 apg, 4.5 rpg, 2.4 spg, 45.1 fg%

those don’t run circles around wall either…

actually, their numbers seem to be very similar. that may be why some people compare wall to paul, and say he has that type of potential.

Comment from Reuben
Time May 29, 2010 at 12:16 PM

just a few of the 564:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiUU-RcE_2g

Comment from dcbutler357
Time May 29, 2010 at 2:15 PM

ok tom, you gotta sharpen up…..you’ve been taking some solid hits lately….lol

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time May 29, 2010 at 4:08 PM

Sigh… a few stats you left out…

3pt %: Chris Paul — 46.5%. John Wall — 32.5%

Points per shot: Chris Paul 1.133. John Wall — 1.01

FT%: Chris Paul — 84.3%. John Wall — 74.5%

In other words, Chris Paul was a significantly better scorer as a freshman.

How about keeping (or getting) the ball away from opponents? Per 40 minutes:

TOs: Chris Paul — 3.2. John Wall — 4.6
Stls: Chris Paul — 3.2. John Wall — 2.0.

In other words, every 40 minutes, Wall gave the opponents 2.5 extra possessions over Paul.

Wall had .5 more assists per 40 minutes than Paul. Then again, Wall was feeding the ball to the most efficient freshman year scorer in the recorded history of college basketball — DeMarcus Cousins.

John Wall is a terrific young player. But he is not Chris Paul. Can he become great — sure!! Chris Paul was *already* great as a college freshman.

Comment from dmac
Time May 29, 2010 at 4:22 PM

I don’t buy Chris Paul came into the league as great. Chris Paul came into the league with a lot of hype and potential just like John Wall is. I really believe the terrific young player Chris Paul) came from what he accomplished in the NBA when he got there.
John Wall was just as good at Kentucky as Chris Paul was at Wake Forest. Now John has to prove he can be a impact point guard that Chris Paul was when he came into the league. I have no doubts he will.

Comment from dmac
Time May 29, 2010 at 4:28 PM

I like Hobson and Vanardo who are coming in on Monday. I think we need a space eater at center alongwith McGee. Besides Pittman and Tom Mandel’s guy from Radford does anyone like Jerome Jordan as a space eater at #35?

Comment from gray16
Time May 29, 2010 at 4:32 PM

3 points:

i agree, paul was a better shooter at his age… but at the same time, it’s easier to hit from the high school 3 than the NEW college 3 point line, trust me. so paul’s numbers are a little deceiving there, that’s part of the reason his 3 point percentage dropped so bad in the nba

free throws:

paul ATTEMPTED 178 fts freshman year, wall MADE 175 this year… it’s not just about how well you make them, it’s also how well you can get there…

as far as turnovers, wall played in a much faster pace system than paul did, which led to more turnovers. at the same time, paul definitely did a better job of taking care of the ball.

so still, i don’t see how chris paul ran circles around wall…

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time May 29, 2010 at 6:03 PM

Look, I hope John Wall is as good as Chris Paul — if we pick him!! — and in fact I hope he eclipses CP3. But you are talking about one of the very top players in the league (when he’s healthy).

Someone on this blog described JaVale McGee as having the potential to be a combination of Kareem and Bill Russell. Someone else described Andray as the best PF in the league.

How about a little more realism? First we have to see if John Wall can be as good as Derrick Rose — they were pretty close as college performers. Derrick Rose ain’t no Chris Paul.

Comment from datonypony
Time May 29, 2010 at 8:58 PM

Personally I never liked Rose, don’t seem as being a particularly good player. Chris Paul is a very good player but personally I like Deron Williams better. Tom, as for that Mcgee comparison I’m pretty sure we all ridiculed them for that

Comment from datonypony
Time May 29, 2010 at 9:00 PM

But these things don’t matter right now, right now we want to see who we can get from the draft!! A PG in john wall, a big dude who may be pittman or jarnado or w/e. We also have one more, and I am inclined to want to find a good 3 point shooter with that pick.

LET’S GET SOME MORE PICKS.

I wonder if those 2 european players will come over…

Comment from gray16
Time May 29, 2010 at 9:19 PM

yes we have to see if john wall can be as good as derrick rose, that’s all a part of proving yourself. i remember when people were saying “chris paul and deron williams are going to be the best 2 pgs in the league one day” but they had to prove that as well. it wasn’t proven yet.

and i remember when paul was in college, people were bragging on him, but not that much. he became cp3 in the nba. he wasn’t thought of as being the best pg until he started showing it in the league. there were doubts about him as well, especially after he disappointed everyone by losing to wvu (which i called lol, just figured i’d throw that in there because i love bragging about that one) when everyone thought they would get to the final 4 or more.

so everyone has to prove themselves, and just like you i hope wall can be as good as cp3. i don’t know if he will reach that level stat wise, but i can see him being just as much of a winner. we shall see though, i just hope that wall has a great career, and paul can get back to being healthy so his career doesn’t start falling apart.

Comment from GrifonRacing
Time May 29, 2010 at 11:49 PM

That WoW stuff is all fine and dandy for evaluating players unseen. It does however seem to me that Kentucky faces a slightly harder row to hoe when compared to Wake Forest.

just a thought.

Comment from GrifonRacing
Time May 29, 2010 at 11:52 PM

Celtics/ Lakers for all of us nostalgia buffs

I grew up in Pittsburgh where “nobody” watched basketball. The Celtics were the only team on tv every single Sunday aftermoon. Back in “the day” they were my team Like I had a choice in the matter.

Comment from doclinkin
Time May 30, 2010 at 9:58 AM

Back to the stats talk, re: John Wall.

Like every metric, Win Score tends to struggle a bit with freshmen. And as far as Point Guards are concerned, it tends to overrate Rebounds. Yes it can identify some early risers, a few hypertalented players, but it will also tend to suggest that no-name players like Patrick Beverly (playing for olympiakos in Greece) or Jeremy Chappel (never did nuttin) will be better pros than Deron Williams or Eric Gordon.

http://tinyurl.com/freshman-pg-win-scores

Or whomever. (This list is the past 10 years of NCAA freshmen PGs ranked by win score. Chris Paul doesn’t show up on the list for some reason, but he shoudl be tied for 2nd. My guy Nick Calathes ranks high, though the fact that he’s also playing in Greece tends to bolster the argument).

The primary function of a PG is the lead the team, spread the ball around, keep teammates involved, maximize their strengths. An emphasis on rebounding on this position can actually throw off court balance, especially in transition defense. Yes you rebound a long bounce into your area, but you don’t dive in among the trees looking for second chances.

John Wall suffers somewhat from the prodigious rebounding rate of his teammates. Between DeMarcus Cousins (down low) and Patrick Patterson (rebounding the midrange) there weren’t a ton of rebounds to be had. And he was right to keep out of the way of a big guy with a bad attitude and deadly elbows like Big Cuddy. Even so his 7.2 Win score as a freshman beats out Deron Williams final year of college with a 6.0.

And he stacks up fine in the simple metric of assists, he shows up quite nicely:

http://tinyurl.com/freshmen-pgs-asts (

That’s 2nd best assist/game in the past 10 years of freshmen. Top 5 in pace adjusted assists per 40 for this group.

And in turnovers per possession his .24 is not appreciably worse than Chris Paul’s freshman year of .21. Freshman guards are notable for turning the ball over a ton, they tend to play with more exuberance than sense. John Wall managed a decent 1.6 asst/TO ratio. But more than any other stat this the category most likely to improve (followed by 3pt% for those who work at it).

Look, you can find any stat you want to give yourself doubts, but any eyeball test shows you this kid has starpower, which only needs to be harnessed. And considering that he’ll be working with Flip Saunders who made Chauncey Billups into Mr Big Shot, and created the career of Starbury, back when he was good, and increased the assist rate of ‘most every PG he’s played with, I think we’ll be alright with the selection.

Comment from maggicman11
Time May 30, 2010 at 10:06 AM

I just logged on to find myself in the middle of a Team Wall vs. Team Paul discussion. wow.. Well, im not sure how many of you watch alot of college bball but Paul was not as good a player his freshmen year as Wall. there numbers are pretty close but those are offensive numbers. Defensively, there is no competition. Wall is a far better defender. he is stronger and responds quicker. thats what gives him the edge. also in the open court, he is the point guard version of lebron james. (please do ridicule me!) he is so quick and has so much explosiveness it is nearly impossible to stop him on a fast break, just like LBJ. of course he doesnt have the size or strength of lebron, but if lebron were 5 inches shorter, this is what you’d see.

Comment from doclinkin
Time May 30, 2010 at 10:11 AM

Also, he’ll be learning the midrange game from Sammy.

And he’ll be able to watch the workaholic practice habits of a longrange gunner like Gilbert.

Comment from doclinkin
Time May 30, 2010 at 10:14 AM

Oh. But no. Chris Paul was a better pure PG as a freshman. John Wall can be mentioned in the same category, but Paul was better. Still, as far as upside is concerned, I’m happy to have the option of wondering.

Comment from gray16
Time May 30, 2010 at 10:57 AM

the thing i don’t like about stats sometimes is that they only tell you HOW a player is performing, not WHY he is performing that way. if you don’t watch a player play games, you don’t fully understand how good of a player he is.

is it fair to say a player that is shooting 50% from the field, but gets a lot of open jumpers off of a big man is performing better than a player shooting 45% but having to carry the offense and create his own shots?

or like the example posted above, chris paul’s 3 point % is so high but people forget he was shooting from the high school 3 point line. stats don’t tell you that.

this is why i try to watch as much bball as possible instead of looking at the stat sheet, although the stat sheet does say a lot. but i also believe that some shots are more important than others and can have a bigger effect on the game than others. same for rebounds and blocks, etc. i believe emotions are a bigger part of the game than stats show. i don’t believe every 5-10 shooting night is the same. the list goes on.

so in the end, i only see stats as a tool to help judge players IF you have seen them play.

Comment from Rick
Time May 30, 2010 at 11:48 AM

Wall is a much better athlete than Chris Paul. He can do things going to the rim that Paul will never be able to do. Things that excite the fans and his teammates and have an intangible effect on the game that doesn’t show up in the stat sheets.

Wall has a long way to go to prove that he can be as great an NBA player as Paul, but his athleticism means his ceiling is higher.

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time May 30, 2010 at 2:10 PM

Doclinkin — if the remark about rebounds was meant to apply to the comparison between Wall and Paul, it doesn’t very well, as Wall got 4.9 rebounds per 40 minutes — pretty good and certainly better than Chris Paul (3.9).

gray16 — Chris Paul is one of the best players in the game today. Full stop. For that to be true of a guy who barely beats 6 feet is pretty remarkable. Are you maybe denying that? Why?

Guys who don’t have great stats in college can become terrific point guards — Deron Williams is a case in point. Steve Nash is another. And John Wall is *enormously* gifted. He may turn out to be terrific. I can easily see why we may/will draft him #1. Does that make him a sure thing superstar? No, sorry, it doesn’t.

Wall is a “much better athlete than Chris Paul”, says Rick. Yes, and Joe Alexander can head butt the rim. Wow. Who was the best athlete in the draft the year LeBron and Wade went through the combine athletic testing? Troy Bell. Remember him? I didn’t think so.

gray16 — you are more interested in *why* a player plays the way he does than *how he plays*? Really? Thing is “why” is an explanation you come up with after a guy sucks to give him an out. Moreover, if you look at most nba players’ year to year stats, they are pretty consistent; they get better for a few years, then they hover, then they go down. And this happens pretty consistently *no matter how they move around from team to team.* Think about it. I’m interested in how guys play, because if you get guys who play better you get a better team: better players = better team.

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time May 30, 2010 at 2:20 PM

Rick — “Things that …have an intangible effect on the game that doesn’t show up in the stat sheets.”

Huh? Here I thought that winning and losing were 100% the product of the final score!! I must have been wrong. And I thought the final score was a product of how many shots your team made in a given number of attempts? Wrong again I guess. And here I thought the number of attempts you got was a product of rebounds, steals and (non)turnovers. Do they also give you the ball for an “intangible.” I guess I also thought that if you foul less, then your opponents gets fewer FTs, and that if you get to the line more you are usually a more efficient scorer.

Anything “intangible” in all that? Anything *other* than that determining which team wins a game?

Of course breaking down an individual player’s effect on the game — i.e. one guy among the team as a whole — can go beyond his effect on the stats above — how *he* shot, rebounded, got steals, did or didn’t turn it over, fouled, got to the line, etc. But not much. Not much at all.

Comment from Rick
Time May 30, 2010 at 4:38 PM

Yes Tom. As a thinking man, I am surprised that you put up so much resistance to the concept that a player’s impact on the game cannot be simply quantified by his stats.

When Wall makes a play that brings the crowd into the game and he excites his teammates, that may spur others on to make a shot, or play harder on defense. Where does that show up in the stat sheet?

I’m sure I don’t need to define intangible for you.

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time May 30, 2010 at 9:27 PM

Yes — absolutely! Leadership, basketball IQ, etc. These things are very important. I just think they go into the numbers — even tho you can’t then pull them out easily.

But, this is all less important than what’s on the Wizards agenda these days! Given that it’s at the least very likely we take Wall #1, what are the needs we can fill at 30 and 35 — and who is out there to fill them.

Tomorrow we have Varnado coming in along w/ Caracter as potential round 2 bigs.

We have Hobson and Morgan as wings or combo forwards. And Bouldin and Vasquez as guards.

Would we really take a second point guard like Vasquez?

All these guys are projected as lower than 35 or else undrafted, btw. So this is not likely a group we’re looking at for our #30 pick.

Comment from doclinkin
Time May 31, 2010 at 12:02 AM

Doclinkin — if the remark about rebounds was meant to apply to the comparison between Wall and Paul, it doesn’t very well, as Wall got 4.9 rebounds per 40 minutes — pretty good and certainly better than Chris Paul (3.9).

Not in particular. Chris Paul registers a stellar win score because of his asst vs turnover disparity. He was a remarkably proficient distributor early, and an efficient scorer.

No, I was referring to the WoW article that suggested that John Wall was perhaps a sub-par selection compared to other PGs in previous drafts, etc.

DeBerri needs an age-adjuster and a position/role specific alteration to really make it sing. Otherwise he pulls up more than a few heavy rebound-rate guards, on teams that lack frontcourt boardsmen.

I’m a proponent of statswork, excited that our man Teddy is as well. But there’s a certain level of common sense that goes along with this as well. Otherwise more than a few idiotic mistakes could be made.

Comment from datonypony
Time May 31, 2010 at 12:04 AM

I would try to find a 3 point shooter and a big man.

Comment from doclinkin
Time May 31, 2010 at 12:15 AM

As for late picks.

My guy is Craig Brackins, and has been since last year. He was a lotto pick after his soph year, but stayed in school, and though his numbers took a hit he actually improved his game.

He split his rebound rate since the team pulled in an active and bouncy rebounder in Marquis Gilstrap (an intriguing prospect as well, he rebounds and hits a corner three. Doesn’t do much else, but still). But upped his passing measures.

Brackins has a smooth face-up game, is a legit NBA 6’10″, has low ego, a frame that will take weight and bulk. Not the longest arms for his height, but knows how to play.

As the sole offensive weapon on his team, with some questionable coaching around him and no ball distributors, his numbers slid backwards. But I believe you can get great deals on players who have shown big league game but who suffer an explainable rough year.

Something is going on with Iowa State. Notice how Wes Johnson broke out after he left the program.

Brackins’ stock has probably jumped back into the mid 1st round now, following workouts and the combine. He can shoot and proved to be a startling athlete for his size. But if he’s still around at 30/35 I’m very happy to have pulled a quality skilled back-up at PF and contender at starting SF.

Comment from doclinkin
Time May 31, 2010 at 1:18 AM

As for filling needs. I’m an adherent of the philosophy that pulls the best talent available wherever you pick.

That said there are a number of players who fit team needs, some of whom are bound to fall into our laps as players behind them on draft boards are leapfrogged by players who test well on the practice court.

Team needs:

Starting Quality Pure Center. Banger. Intimidating frontcourt rebounder who sets hard picks, brings a bit of thunder. It’s a bonus if he has a bit of a mean streak. But since we ain’t selecting Cousins, and Cole Aldrich will get taken early, we probably won’t fill this need. This year. We could get a role-player here though. A change of pace player who may actually start for us while JaVale is still on-again off-again and learning defensive fundamentals.

Candidates:
Brian Zoubek is probably too danged slow. Especially for this team. He’s got the attitude, the resume, the on court IQ. He intimidates, changes shots, can pass well. But unless he can play the 2.9-second tango he’s a Tech foul waiting to happen in the paint, and outside of the paint he’ll get pick and rolled to death. Still it was impressive how he snuffed and asphyxiated Cousins.

This is the sort of player that the Spurs always take for their center spot, except that he fouls way too much.

Art Parakouski and Omar Samhan. One of these two could make it. Both are big fish in small conferences. But both have a little game. I like Samhan’s character, attitude, personality. And I like his true low-post skill set. I htink he has the

Parakhouski looks like a Euro-stiff, but has a little range to his game. And he proved to be sorta mobile at the combine. He has zero low-post game right now, but actually a pretty decent midrange game.

Best pure talent at center in the draft is young Hassan Whiteside, but he looks scared and immature. Needs a ton of seasoning and we already have that player in JVMcG. Plus we’re saved from the decision by the fact that he’ll go way early.

I actually like Daniel Orton. He’s an engaging guy with great size, nascent intelligence. He’s overrated in most mocks, but I think will prove to have way more game than his colelge stats suggested, playing behind Cousins. In a normal year he’d probably prove a solid round 2 pick. But he’ll likely go higher.

There will probably be a better ‘Best Player Available’ than candidates for this position of need. But, right, starting quality center is probably our position of greatest need.

Comment from doclinkin
Time May 31, 2010 at 1:20 AM

Other positions of need:

Perimeter defender.
Back-up PF.
Three point threat.
Contender for starting 2-guard.
Contender for starting SF.

But I’ll have to visit those possibilities another time.

Comment from datonypony
Time May 31, 2010 at 4:55 AM

Doclinkin you summed up our draft needs pretty well.

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time May 31, 2010 at 7:10 AM

I agree that WoW is of limited value in selecting freshmen. It’s a useful tool, and that’s all. Don’t throw it away, but don’t make it into a religion either.

Still, *college numbers* are the best single indicator of NBA numbers.

Parakhouski gives the impression somehow that he’s one of those thick backup centers that will be productive off the bench for 10 years. Samhan is a terrific kid; I wonder if he is at all athletic enough. If we had a low round 2 pick, I’d definitely toss a rope around Zoubek. Probably too slow, as you say, but still…

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time May 31, 2010 at 7:24 AM

I wish we had a mid-first round pick to go with our current picks, but we probably don’t have an easy way to acquire one.

As Doc says, we are in need of starting wing players and a starting Center. No way to acquire the latter, but there may well be candidates for the wing in the middle of round 1, and maybe even at our #30.

Quincy Pondexter has put up very productive numbers as (mostly) an undersized 4. He will have to play the 3 in the league. He might be there at #30, and he might turn out to be good. What’s your take on Quincy, Doc?

Comment from dcbutler357
Time May 31, 2010 at 9:53 AM

So I was on the NJ Turnpike yesterday and saw Sacaucus or whatever the name is…..powerball night/lottery pick….

As far as success/numbers in college, Wall had one of the most potent teams in the NCAAs. The success of the team didn’t warrant him to go all out every night for a win (imo not a sure=way to gauge nba success, but gotta start somewhere). I.E. Deron Williams and Illinois. Dee Brown was an awesome three point threat, combined with everyone else on the team, but once williams left, his numbers werent as good? Nor the team? He shot a lot more and scored more points, but that’s about it.

Comment from Rick
Time May 31, 2010 at 10:23 AM

I have never seen Parakouski play, but he has the physical attributes that we need. I did see Samhan play in the tourney and I liked his game, but am skeptical about his athleticism. It looked to me like he lost a lot of weight. I wonder how that will affect his game.

did anyone see the big 19 year old kid from England at the draft combine? Ryan Reynolds i think is his name.

In reality, it’s hard to imagine a center that we can get at the 30th pick who will be less of a project than Javale. In fact, I don’t think there is another starting center in the draft this year (other than Cousins). I think we should take the best player available and pick up a banger in free agency. then hope for a center next year.

Comment from gray16
Time May 31, 2010 at 10:55 AM

tom, i am not denying chris paul’s greatness, he’s the best pg in the league imo. i’m saying he’s not as great as you say he was in college. he didn’t run circles around wall. he became the player he is in the nba, not college. he was a great player in college as well, but he didn’t run circles around wall.

as for the why vs how, i tend to look at things as a coach or player, not a statistician. i look at why a player shot a bad percentage in this game and not in the other, and what he or the coach should do to keep him shooting well.

i don’t believe a statistician can explain why caron butler’s numbers dropped this season as well as we who watched the games can. a statistician just knows he wasn’t making shots, we know why he wasn’t making him and even the effects of him not taking the shot.

and then with boykins, we could see the poor effect he would have more than the stat sheet. dribbling for 20 seconds and leaving another player with 3 seconds to shoot doesn’t hurt him, but it can make the player he passed to get a missed shot or a turnover… is there a stat to tell you what happened?

and finally, if i’m building a team, i’m not just building team based on wp48. i know each player has specific stats because of the way they played in the system they were in. i’m going to look at the system they will be placed in and what skills they have to fit into it. if i put a sg who can’t post up into the triangle offense, he’s not going to help as much as a sg like kobe, jordan, or (just as an example), brandon roy who have post up games.

and i feel that developing players is a part of this as well. knowing why a player is shooting poorly or well and what he needs to improve on to keep or get his game at a high level.

these are just my opinions on it, and why i feel watching the game tells more than stats.

Comment from doclinkin
Time May 31, 2010 at 12:52 PM

As Doc says, we are in need of starting wing players and a starting Center. No way to acquire the latter, but there may well be candidates for the wing in the middle of round 1, and maybe even at our #30.

Quincy Pondexter has put up very productive numbers as (mostly) an undersized 4. He will have to play the 3 in the league. He might be there at #30, and he might turn out to be good. What’s your take on Quincy, Doc?

I like Q-Pon quite well, even though he does nothing in particular outstanding at an NBA level. He’s one of those basketball lifers who will find a way to make a living in this game. Hard worker, and better still he scraps on defense. Yes he’s stuck at SF in this game, he’ll stick on a roster but never star never challenge for starting position except on a team that needs a role-player at this spot.

As far as perimeter defense attitude and effort are concerned, with a late-1st pick I like Dominique Jones. Keeps his head up in transition, attacks and finishes strong, makes it to the line better than any other 2-guard in the draft.

He’s not a kick-out primary option for the long range shot, or anyway he hasn’t been at college. In the NBA he won’t be a primary option, he’s had to do absolutely everything for his team at the NCAA level, it will be a relief to be able to be forgotten for a second or two. And range is something that players can reliably add.

Anyway if DeShawn can start for us at 2-guard as a defensive specialist, I get the feeling that DomJones can take that role as a back-up and make a career for himself.

If we could move up to mid-first I’d snap up Xavier Henry in a heartbeat. He’ll be the first ‘how’d he fall that far?’ player in this draft. Only 19, but big time game and poise. In the NBA he’ll be a swing 2-3. I suspect he’ll creep up into the lotto though when all interviews and workouts are finished.

There are other players I’d risk a pick on. Eliot Williams will be available and should be a decent fit. But there will probably be a ‘best talent available’ surprise who also falls that far (#30).

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time May 31, 2010 at 2:40 PM

I love Xavier Henry! But… I don’t think we’ll have any shot at him unless we can acquire another round 1 pick — pretty high one too.

He had an excellent freshman season, and he seems like a great kid too. Here’s an interview with him at the Combine. There’s also a link to see his stats:

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Xavier-Henry-1324/

Dominique Jones does look good as well. And I like his shooting form, which should help him add range. I don’t know if he’s as athletic as DeShawn was when he came in the league (he lost a lot of that, alas).

Comment from dmac
Time May 31, 2010 at 3:51 PM

Does anybody think that trading the 30 and 35 to drop lower in the top 20 picks is a good idea? Maybe we can pick up the big body we need in the middle. Just a thought.

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time May 31, 2010 at 4:09 PM

You mean trading 30 and 35 for a mid-first round pick? Not sure who would do that, and anyway I think we will get such good value at those spots that I wouldn’t likely want to make the trade.

Of course it all depends who might be available. Xavier Henry looks to me like a guy who might be an effective starter in the league (but probably not his rookie season — he’s a freshman, born in 1991 !:! )

But I don’t see any “big body in the middle” types at that spot in the draft. I do like Larry Sanders, but he’s 70 lbs shy of DeMarcus Cousins!

Comment from gray16
Time May 31, 2010 at 5:44 PM

there’s a picture of arenas at the workouts today standing next to ted and ernie. it’s nice to see him back. hopefully he is doing well and is ready to come back.

Comment from gray16
Time May 31, 2010 at 6:02 PM

oh, the picture is on bullets forever

Comment from wizbulletman0
Time May 31, 2010 at 6:14 PM

man o man…has it been a while. I think the last couple seasons have depressed me i have not posted here in forever.

I love draft time though.

Well we know Wall will be number 1.
I really like Varnado even though he is a stick, but defense translates to the nba and if he could be half of what Chris Anderson brings i would love that. An instant energy guy that comes in and just blocks shots and may come in for a put back dunk. He does have incredible leaping ability and is able to use that and his long arms to his advantage.

THe other guy i really think could be there is stanley robinson. His athleticism is off the charts. He uses that athleticism in game too. Its not just showing up to the combine and blowing it up and than GMs asking “where was that this year.” He could be another bench guy that gives instant energy and is not given credit for his offensive ability. He has a good jumper and improving ball handling. I watched a ton of Uconn games because they always seemed to be on.

Another guy that COULD fall is Terrico White. I think people need to talk more about him because he is a volume scorer who i would compare to Ben Gordon but taller. He is 6’5, said to have like 3% body fat. Has a 40 inch vertical and a smooth jump shot.

I wouldnt mind Vasquez either but i am still a little wary of his athleticism and if he can compete with guys that are just plain quicker and faster. I think he is a great player though and would not mind him if he was drafted with one of our later picks.

Comment from dcbutler357
Time May 31, 2010 at 8:01 PM

A legit three via free agency and a legit center via the draft, free agency or trade, and we could very well squeak into the playoffs….BUT I am ready to just field a decent team.

1) Wall
2) Gil
3) xxxx
4) AB
5) XXXX

In all actuality, we really are not that far from it all.

Comment from gray16
Time May 31, 2010 at 8:08 PM

i hope andray is practicing his post moves and looking at video tape to learn how to pass out of the double teams, because if he is, the offense is set.

wall handling the ball, gil spot up shooting and running iso’s, and dray getting the ball most of the time inside to run the offense. that’s a great half court set, and with javale, gil, and wall, the fast break is going to be… yeah, that lol

the defense is where all the worries are at this point.

still don’t want to get into too much thinking though, until after the draft and especially after free agent time.

Comment from dcbutler357
Time May 31, 2010 at 8:10 PM

true dat. Gil watching with mgmt is a positive sign of where we are headed. Great to see it.

Comment from neal
Time May 31, 2010 at 9:21 PM

SportzWiz, glad to hear you’re thinking about something for draft night. It’ll have more cred if you get behind it. Anything more definite? I have to show as I may owe palomo 2 drinks.

millie, thanks for the info on Veremeenko and Preldzic.

I’m pretty sure Veremeenko is still under contract. He’s only playing 20 min. per game. Can’t tell whether he’s finally a starter for his Russian league team. It turned out that, in spite of the initial info, he’s actually a bit less than 6?10?. When he played preseason for us year before last he didn’t impress me.

Preldzic shot 51% as a 6’8″ 2/3 and did pretty well on rebounds and assists. Who does he play for? Is he still under contract? We could use a 2/3. I would like to see him in the summer league and/or preseason. He might make the team.

Comment from datonypony
Time May 31, 2010 at 11:54 PM

Preldzic is listed as a point forward I think. It seems to me that he is a tweener who can play 1-4…

Wouldn’t mind having him on the wiz tho, I want new youngish players.

Comment from doclinkin
Time June 1, 2010 at 1:17 AM

On Varnado. I like the guy, not just for the shotblocking but also his rebounding. But that said, with the cleared cylinder rules, shotblocking has been neutered as a primary tactic. The era of force basketball is over. Check the all-time swat kings list:

http://tinyurl.com/nbashotblockas-all-time

You have to go down a long ways to find a current era player. Or click the drop-down box to select the pace-adjusted version, and the first player you get in the modern era is our own JVMcG. Which should illustrate how generally ineffective shotblocking can be, given that our defense is actually far worse with McGee on court.

I’m not crying if we take Varnado at 35. But I’m hoping to have my doubts erased in that case.

Comment from doclinkin
Time June 1, 2010 at 2:00 AM

But Jarvis Varnado is on my list of back-up change-of-pace PF’s.

There are a few active feisty bouncy or long dangly type players in this draft. I’ve also got my eye on The Show Larry Sanders. He’s got the speed to keep up with our hyperathletic core. We can wear ‘em out by pouring in reserves who as as quick as our starters. Or quicker.

Okay so my pipedream of landing Patrick Patterson has evaporated in a cloud of opium smoke, and even Damion James will probably be gone. So much for well-rounded two-way players.

But still there are a swarm of interesting tweeners and SFs who could be available and could act as defensive specialists or hustle players. Or even three point gunner.

I like variously:

Marqus Blakely (all-hustle strongman, no range, but a long armed mutant. I haven’t seen that height to wingspan ratio since Jason Maxiell)

Paul George (raw ath-elite, in love with the outside shot but a serious talent)

Craig Brackins (smooth finesse 4, legit size, iffy defense, but he fits Flip’s offensive concept)

Marquis Gilstrap (shoots the corner three, also rebounds profligately)

Luke Babbit (nice outside shot, all-court offense. ?’s about D). But the only way he lasts past Indy is if they decide to reach for the local boy (Gordon Hayward).

Truth is though if we wanted to add a defensive specialist with a ton of heart, we’d do ourselves a favor adding Trevor Booker. I can see him altering to become a perimeter lockdown specialist, unafraid to take on the opponent’s best player. It may take a minute to adjust from featured star to role-player, but the kid loves the game, he’ll adjust.

All that said, I suspect if we were picking best player available we’d be remiss not to take Kevin Seraphin as a contender for starting C or PF back-up. It’s rare you see a player relatively young with a competent hookshot from lefty or righty and able to use glass or play with his back to the basket.

That’s a Best Talent pick you just don’t pass on, even if he may take a little seasoning.

Comment from doclinkin
Time June 1, 2010 at 2:02 AM

In short, yeah, it’s a deep draft. If we had a 20-man roster, I’d want 2-3 more picks from this draft alone.

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time June 1, 2010 at 7:53 AM

One thing I admire about you, Doc — your views on prospects agree with mine!!!

Yes, this is an extraordinarily deep draft. I am hoping we find a way to come out of this draft w/ 4-5 players. If 4, then I hope there’s an undrafted guy with some shine (viz…. Marqus Blakely)

It’s very likely next year’s draft will be weak because so many young guys came out this year, so they can get signed under the current CBA and also avoid having their rookie years disturbed by a lockout. This is the year to add cheap, young talent that can develop.

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time June 1, 2010 at 7:56 AM

Patterson, Sanders, James and George will almost certainly be gone by our #30 pick. But maybe we’ll acquire another round 1 pick? Bulletsforever has an interesting piece on who may be wanting to offload 1 or more picks:

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2010/5/25/1486721/hey-wizards-you-want-more-draft

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time June 1, 2010 at 8:04 AM

If Seraphin is available at #30 — yes, grab him. But, I kind of doubt he will be.

On the other end of the spectrum, Marqus Blakely doesn’t seem to figure into anyone’s mock draft. That doesn’t mean he won’t be drafted, and anyway there are 23.5 days until the draft, so that can change. But, I would be talking w/ his agent right now about a post-draft FA deal on a team where he could actually see minutes his rookie year. I would even go buy a later round 2 pick in order to nab him.

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time June 1, 2010 at 8:10 AM

Gilstrap is another guy who isn’t projected on anyone’s draft board but will *definitely* be playing on someone’s Summer League team. I’d love to bring him in, though I wouldn’t draft him. But… there are only so many guys we can bring in. Other teams will be looking at them as well!

Doc — putting aside the question whether someone unexpected drops to us, would you pick Brackins at #30? If so, what if Pondexter is also there? Whom do you choose?

Comment from doclinkin
Time June 1, 2010 at 11:57 AM

At 30 I’m non-committal. I am expecting a surprise and will accept nothing less. Not dialing in on a player.

If Brackins and Pondexter are both the ‘best available’ then it’s a coin flip. I think Brackins has more talent on offense, more size, Pondexter the better rounded player, more active defender.

In that case you draft based on your strongest need. Fit with the system. Or synergy with the team. Who would see more minutes?

Brackins adds a back-up to Dray: a finesse player with a midrange/face-up game, able to hit off the catch, keeps the cylinder under the basket open for Gil and Wall to strafe in. He fits Flip’s system, and can play next to Dray as a SF.

Pondexter is duplicative of Al Thornton (tweener forward) with less pure athletix and better defense. But defense is a position of great need for us. If Flip thinks Q-Pon can help the HPTFZone sing, then I’m okay with that pick.

As of today Pondexter is the more highly touted player, which could mean that Brackins is still available at 35. You could take him and gamble on getting both. I personally like Brackins more, and could be the silence indicates avid and closely guarded interest.

Either way I think you’re getting a real player. Good teammate. My flinch reaction instinct is to say Brackins is the better fit in terms of personnel and playtime. But we need defense.

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time June 1, 2010 at 1:55 PM

Good stuff, Doc. Seems like one of those guys will be available. Size is very much in Craig’s favor.

Also seems to me we would love a two guard to come out of this draft. I have my eye on Mikhail Torrance at #35, but there are other prospects as well (Terrico White for one).

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