Washington Wizards Blog

Comment from AUNDRA
Time April 24, 2009 at 7:42 AM

First impressions are lasting impressions and Coach Saunders you are very impressive. You command attention and your words personify a man who wants a championship more than even Agent Zero. Team Wizards we definitely have a Winner Here and I thought I would be more excited with a Blake Griffin 1st round draft pick but I was wrong.Whoever is on this team in November will be focused and determined for a championship and nothing else I am sure of that. Bloggers what was your first impression of Coach Saunders!

Comment from fishercob
Time April 24, 2009 at 7:59 AM

Hear hear, Dave. For everything Abe has done for this city and community, I would just love it if we could win a Larry O’brien for him. He’s so deserving.

I trust Ernie to give Flip a great roster come training camp. If we don’t win the Griffin lottery, I think Ernie trades the pick for veteran help (even if it means trading Rubio).

I cannot wait for next season!

Comment from getabigboyoffense
Time April 24, 2009 at 9:16 AM

GrifonRacing, it was never my intention to leave the blog, I was just disgusted writing the same things after every game that ET coached so I decided to not post until we got rid of him. It’s like we have a new lease on life with coach Saunders.

Comment from SportzWiz
Time April 24, 2009 at 9:34 AM

Should have several interviews up shortly of the local media’s reaction to the saunders hiring and their thoughts on Flip.

Comment from jeffmalone1990
Time April 24, 2009 at 10:16 AM

for fishercob’s comment , and Dave I am sure you will be off and on the blog this entire summer. Sportzwiz looking forward to the interviews and reaction. I really cannot wait to see what time of roster we will have going into the season next year, and what other additions will be on the coaching staff.

I just really get the feeling that with 19 wins and a new coach that the players really will work EXTRA HARD this off season (may not be a lot of vacation time) and I love it, more team building and development, I cannot wait!!

Comment from GrifonRacing
Time April 24, 2009 at 11:29 AM

Gabbo I can certainly understand that. Now that we have endured maybe now we can celebrate. It’s a New Day in Wizards Land.

I agree Jeff… Great post by Fishercob! It would be great to get Abe another championship. I can’t think of an owner more deserving.

Comment from SportzWiz
Time April 24, 2009 at 11:36 AM

hey guys the videos are up above, they incllude interviews from

Michael Lee (Post)
Mike Jones (Times)
Chris Miller (Comcast Sportsnet)
Steve Buckhantz (TV Announcer)
Dave Johnson (I hope you all know who he is )

Comment from AUNDRA
Time April 24, 2009 at 12:03 PM

SPORTZWIZ
I AM GETTING A GENERAL ERROR WHEN TRYING TO VIEW THE VIDEOS TOP SIDE. WHATS MY SOLUTION IF ANY AT THIS TIME?

Comment from SportzWiz
Time April 24, 2009 at 12:10 PM

Aundra, i get a general error every so often when using the NBA league player, try refreshing and just waiting for everything to load before clicking, the more you click the better chance for an error, the video should pop up automatically.

currently im not seeing the error message, but thats my best advice, sometimes the player’s a little inconsistent unfortunately.

Comment from SportzWiz
Time April 24, 2009 at 12:11 PM

i just clicked on one video and kept attempting to hit the play button while it was loading and got the error, the best advice is just to let it load on its own.

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time April 24, 2009 at 12:12 PM

Make sure you’re using Internet Explorer and not Firefox, which doesn’t work.

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time April 24, 2009 at 12:16 PM

All right… lets talk about the draft.

We have 2 high picks; right now there’s only room for one of them, but lets assume for a moment that Ernie does something, don’t know what, to clear a roster space.

Obviously, everyone knows that we (or anyone) will pick Blake Griffin if we have the first pick. But, there’s only an 18% chance of that, so lets talk about what we’d do if we have the 2d or 3d pick in the draft.

Is there anyone you think is good enough to grab at that spot? Thabeet? Ricky Rubio? Or… should we trade the pick and a player for a lower pick and a better player?

If you don’t know about DraftExpress, it’s a great site for researching players and following draft buzz. Check it out, and lets give Ernie a little help!

Comment from edry09
Time April 24, 2009 at 12:47 PM

What about trading it along with Stevenson to Detroit for Hamilton and their 15th pick, he is a veteran SG with great playoff experience, good shot, good defense and it makes even more sense because Saunders and Wiz organisation already know him!!

Comment from neal
Time April 24, 2009 at 12:54 PM

Isn’t Hamilton a bit long in the tooth by now? Like Hughes, I wish we hadn’t gotten rid of him but we can’t relive the past.

Presumably, Saunders will have a bigger voice in personnel matters than Jordan did.

I trust Grunfeld not to do something stupid, which he hasn’t so far. I’d rather he just wait for something clearly in our advantage, or do nothing at all. Although, like most of you, I can see that we have too many PF’s and not enough roster spots.

It will really be interesting to see if Saunders has different ideas about who should be getting minutes. While four of our starters look set, everthing else is in some doubt.

Comment from SportzWiz
Time April 24, 2009 at 1:09 PM

Tom on a scale of 1-10 how much do you love the draft?

Comment from edry09
Time April 24, 2009 at 1:12 PM

I hope for some moves anyway, we need less PF and more shooters especially if Arenas turns into a true PG under Saunders.
As EG said this draft pick is an asset, if we can’t get Griffin putting Jamisonon the bench (as a 6th man) rather trade the pick to have a good reserve veteran.

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time April 24, 2009 at 5:32 PM

SportsWiz — why stop at 10?

I love the draft for so many reasons — probably the biggest one is that I love kids, and the draft looks to me (long in tooth as I am) like a parade of kids on their first day of school, finding out what class they’re going to be in and who will be their friends and so forth.

The other big reason I love the draft is that, despite my rep for being into stats and being the “realist” here, in fact I’m all about the future, about potential, about what might, just might be coming out of nowhere to change absolutely everything.

A third reason is that… I just love change. I like dynamism, I like things to happen. I don’t want next season to open and I’m looking at the same old Wizards. If that’s what happens, then I’ll be happy if we do well and unhappy if we do poorly. But, either way I really want some new faces. Change. It’s exciting.

One more reason (anybody getting bored yet?) is that it’s where the utterly unexpected happens. You take a guy near the end of round 2, and he turns out to be a jewel — and *I* called him! (Those of you around since the ‘07 draft will recall that I called Dominic *immediately* as a huge steal and likely to be a very good player)

So, yeah, I’m watching the playoffs and rooting for the underdogs. But my basketball mind, even more, is on the new Wizards — the guys who aren’t Wizards yet but who will be. Lets get some really good ones, via the draft and via trades.

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time April 24, 2009 at 5:37 PM

No, I don’t think we really need more shooters. There’s only one basketball, remember.

Comment from ChenierFan
Time April 24, 2009 at 5:42 PM

Some Random thoughts…
1) It is not too late for Gabbo to get his application in for assistant coach…
2) We are lucky to get Flip Saunders.He is a better coach than Eddie Jordan.
3) The only thing missing from the press conference was a heartfelt apology from Ernie for hiring Tapscott.
4) The only reason to watch the draft is for the first pick

Comment from datonypony
Time April 24, 2009 at 7:46 PM

I have to say, I am not a fan of Ricky RUbio. I would MUCH rather we drafted James Harden.

Comment from getabigboyoffense
Time April 24, 2009 at 8:30 PM

ChenierFan thanks for the vote of confidence. You’re a riot! I’m sure that Flip could use that 61st resume for assistant coach.

There is nothing that I have done that was more exciting and more gratifying than coaching basketball and I’d go for it again if I only had to tell the guys what to do…not show them. The showing stuff ended about two decades ago. LOL

Comment from GrifonRacing
Time April 24, 2009 at 10:10 PM

I think if we don’t get the top pick there will probably be a trade of some type. I’m not that familiar with that many players in this years draft. Who does everyone like for our high second rounder. The last second rounder we kept Tom nailed. When is the lottery? Is it May 25?

Comment from GrifonRacing
Time April 24, 2009 at 10:16 PM

If we don’t get the top pick what does everyone think about maybe trading down to get DeJuan Blair? I like him almost as much as Griffin.

Comment from GrifonRacing
Time April 24, 2009 at 10:17 PM

well that’s a stretch…. but I like him lol

Comment from neal
Time April 24, 2009 at 10:58 PM

Yes, there is always a team that gets enamored with a guy in the first round that they just have to have. If we aren’t successful in the lottery maybe we can trade our top pick and one of our reserves for a proven producer.

Comment from Wizards4Life
Time April 25, 2009 at 12:35 AM

i would be more than happy to trade any pick but the top one for a Vet with some skills.. we dont need projects right now because if we are healty this year and dont go anywere than we are REBILDING an that is about as bad as it gets

Comment from doclinkin
Time April 25, 2009 at 2:46 AM

NBA consensus would have it that Blake Griffin and Ricky Rubio are the top two picks in the draft. Griffin’s talents are obvious, Ricky is a foreign entity, tougher to get a full appreciation of his talents and skills.

I’ve been pretty skeptical myself. The ‘cute’ factor urges me to take a step back (how many GMs would take him simply because your daughter will find him ‘dreamy’). I can hear the shrill piercing shrieks on family fun night already. But also because Great Euro Hopes tend to be drafted too early.

But the kid is slowly winning me over. I watch the ACB league on smeared video feed from various sources (plead the 5th) and at the beginning of the year little Ricky was missing the outside shot. Now he hits them with regularity. I’ve been skeptical about his defense, his lateral footspeed and pure athleticism are frankly a step below his quick-twitch peers in ‘Merican ball.

But the kid has been chipping away at my resistance here as well. Because his positioning is solid, and better still his anticipation is without a superior. Kid knows where you want to be and gets there first. He has that Jason Kidd quality of knowing where every player is on the floor, yours and his.

He’s pesky, active, with really long arms for his height. And he makes the right kinds of steals, he picks a pocket on penetration instead of merely jumping in passing lanes. This is key: first you have to stall your man and get inside his dribble, otherwise more often than not you’re merely giving up an open lane to the hoop. The ACB league is the second strongest domestic league in the world. Not chockfull of the longest fastest et ceteras. But savvy tough ballers who play fierce clutching hacking smart positional team defense. And Ricky Rubio just won their Defensive Player of the Year award.

And that’s on top of the assists. Which you’re probably seen far too many times in slo-mo clips, worthless for talent evaluation but great for selling a ticket. Eh. Still, the kid’s pretty good on that end in addition to being just pretty and all that. Put it this way, his squad leads the ACB in team assists, that sort of unselfishness is addictive and contagious. At one point this year he was averaging something like 14 assists per 40 minutes of play (on top of 4+ steals). The number has leveled off a bit, but he’s still outpacing the rest of the league. As an 18 year old kid.

As for the pundits? I could give a rip about any Chad Ford or whatnot. I like DX and Lohn Givony okay though they are vulnerable to overinflating this or that Euroballer.

But when Kobe and Deron Williams and other Olympic medalists say the kid is good and gonna be better. Hey, them’s the guys I’ll listen to.

And as for team need. We just went for 19 wins because we took our boy Stewie instead of a Rajon Rondo/Jordan Farmar back-up plan. Facts are plain, we need a talent upgrade and a fall-back plan one way or the other. You can land a decent or developing Big late into the 2nd round (Paul Millsapp, Chuck Hayes, Carl Landry, etc). But you can’t land a franchise ‘QB’ there.

So. While I’m not advocating Rubio over Griffin, I’m saying there’s no despair if we luck into either of the top 2 picks.

Now below that? Well, I’m a fan of the best player available strategy, but this is a good year for B-level point guards.

Eric Maynor will be a quality Player in this league. Tough, clutch, smart, and rhymes with ’smallsy’. Nice set-up man who also knows when to score.

Ty Lawson is short, yes, but who is quicker and stronger? The no-handcheck league has made a space for smaller speedsters. Tony Parker has made a nice career out of it.

And a former Indiana coach who rocks a red sweater has gone on record to say my guy Stef Curry will be the best point guard to come out of college this year. doc’s smallschool maxim says always take a second look at a PG who can regularly drop 10 dimes on a squad with only one other double digit scorer. Especially if he proves he can score in the tourney against Big Dogs like Georgetown and UConn. With a godstouched pretty shot from Hibachi deep.

So:
1. Griffin
2. Rubio, fine.
3, 4, 5. Trade down and swap the pick plus filler for quality vet/starter to satisfy Mr Pollin’s ‘belly-in-the-button’ while he can still truly enjoy a championship (!!!(woo)!!!). But by all means trade down, not out, and pick up a ‘plan B’ PG for the future.

Please.

Thanks,

Your boy

-doc.

Comment from doclinkin
Time April 25, 2009 at 2:50 AM

Jon Givony that is. Sorry JonG. I second the Mandel-guy in saying DX has the best draftsite on the web.

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time April 25, 2009 at 6:43 AM

doc — what a *great* post! Thank you.

The problem with Rubio is that I think he can’t come over here for a few years — contract, buy-out, etc. Once that dance starts, you never know do you see him at all. And we can’t afford to waste a tip top pick like that. If we use it, we have to get value for it.

I totally agree about Stephen Curry. I believe he will be a big-time player in the league, and I would *love* to have him. Every team Davidson played had no other purpose than to prepare for Curry, and he still torched them all. People say he is too slight, too this or that… Forget about it. The guy is a great basketball player and will be in any league.

I don’t know anything about Maynor, but I also agree w/ you that Lawson may turn out to be a very good PG — probably a backup, but still quite good.

Grifonracing mentions Dejuan Blair, whom I like as well. He has gaudy college numbers — right up there with Griffin. But… he has done it by dominating physically, and you always wonder how that translates. Still, he will probably wind up a lottery pick I think.

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time April 25, 2009 at 7:07 AM

As to trades — our big goals should be to trim dead wood, get rid of some long-term salary commitments if possible, land one young veteran contributor, and make room to sign two draft choices. It’ll be almost impossible to reach all those goals.

Dead wood — If we’re going to give someone the number 2 or 3 pick in the draft, they have to help with this. That means giving us *one* player for our pick plus at least two and even better three (the more we give the better player we can get back, because of salary matching) of the six players on our roster who contribute nothing to winning ball games, getting into the playoffs, doing some damage while there, etc.

This is not about wishful thinking, loyalty or admiration; it’s about objective analysis. The 6 are: Thomas, James, Pecherov, Stevenson, Songaila and Young. Thomas and James are gone after the coming season anyway, and of course everyone will scream that I want to dump Nick Young, so lets just say Pech, DeShawn and Darius.

Here’s a trade with Houston I’d like: we give them Pech, our pick, and Darius for a late first rounder and Carl Landry.

Comment from neal
Time April 25, 2009 at 8:23 AM

I love learning from you guys.

Pecherov is also gone after next year unless the Wiz pick up his option year.

Comment from doclinkin
Time April 25, 2009 at 10:32 AM

The problem with Rubio is that I think he can’t come over here for a few years — contract, buy-out, etc. Once that dance starts, you never know do you see him at all. And we can’t afford to waste a tip top pick like that. If we use it, we have to get value for it.

Yes, yes, we’ve been burned in the past by Spanish ‘escorts’ (as the google translations seem to call ‘guards’).

Here’s the thing about that. People who seem to know more than me suggest that in a worst case scenario Ricky may have a reasonable exit strategy. His agent Dan Fegan (who represents absolutely everybody of note) seems confident in the fact.

The scuttlebutt seems to resolve around this: the Euro court system tends to have a little more reasonable leeway in contract matters, and would tend to frown on any contract that had a multi-million dollar buyout on a kid who is only getting paid 80,000 Euros. The court system has the ability to say: that’s not a reasonable value, and reduce the figure.

That said, if the kid is as all the experts say he is, you make the pick and consider it good value even if you have to fight to get him. Top 2 picks come around very rarely, ditto game-changing franchise Points. If you have that opportunity you don’t squander it on dropping an awkward contract or freeing up roster space. There are a million ways to fix that problem (this year Etan & Mike James’ expiring contracts actually become an asset. Even Big Poet’s asphyxiating Trade kicker can help a team trying to drop a ton of salary to be able to ante up in the high-stakes game where LeBron is the Prize).

But nobody looks back from the Hall of Fame podium and says: “I’m sure glad we dropped a few contracts”. You earn back any money you lost in luxury tax payments if you can sell out Luxury suites and bump up your ad revenue. And then some.

So if all the experts agree that Rickrube is who they think he is– pull the trigger and no regrets.

Comment from doclinkin
Time April 25, 2009 at 10:48 AM

Think about Etan’s contract this way. People were looking at Rafe LaFrentz’ Expiring Contract as a massive asset for dropping salary. And some pretty big names were tossed around in discussions about dropping salary to free up room for the ‘10 free agent market.

Imagine LeBron wins a championship this year or next and feels like he can reasonably move on having matched all the challenges and given good memories to the folks of his hometown. (Pretending for a second he has a conscience and ain’t just a swaggering pantload who loves the smell of himself). Imagine the gyrations and fiscal contortions a team like the Brooklyn Nets would travel to be willing to undergo to land LeCrabdribble. Shoot they might offer Vince Carter with draft picks as a sweetener of they had a reasonable certainty that LeBron woudl sign up to play for his boyfriend (Nets part owner) JayZee (Hova, Jigga whatever he’s calling himself these days).

Just saying, the situation isn’t as desperate as you might think. The lux tax is based on revenue, and this year league-wide attendance was among the top 3 of all time. I expect the relevance of Boston, the Lakers, and the dubutante’s ball of LeBron waltzing through the league have helped to save lux tax damages from a hsot of teams.

And then the Contract with the Player’s association is up for re-negotiation. If the majority of the league feels an economic pinch they’ll certainly revise Lux Tax rules and ask for real concessions from the Players.

So.

Abe wants to win now, understood. But you don’t waste a #2 pick unless you get real and significant value, all-star quality in return.

Comment from doclinkin
Time April 25, 2009 at 10:59 AM

Put simply: if little Ricky Roll is there at our pick, we’re never gonna give him up, he’s never gonna let you down, he’s never gonna run around…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHg5SJYRHA0

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time April 25, 2009 at 11:05 AM

Excellent posts, doc. You make a solid argument for drafting RR if we have the chance.

As to salaries and the tax, yes it’s obvious that we’d be able to trade Etan and Mike’s expiring salaries and get good value for them. But, have you looked at *our* salary structure? If we re-sign Dom and Brendan, we’re back up to $75m the following year, and we again have over $200m in trailing revenue commitments.

Btw, you’re not suggesting we want Vince Carter at this point in his career, are you?

Comment from gbkdc
Time April 25, 2009 at 11:11 AM

Doc, I’m laughing out loud at your description of LeBron! Indeed!

Comment from GrifonRacing
Time April 25, 2009 at 11:20 AM

Welcome Back Doc. I truely enjoy your posts! Your knowlegde and sense of humor are just terriffic. The only thing I knew about Rubio was litterally the kid’s name. A lot of people here like him. That was all I really knew. Thank you for enlightening me.

Comment from doclinkin
Time April 25, 2009 at 11:27 AM

If we’re in ‘win now’ mode and Abe is willing to pay the lux tax yeah I wouldn’t sneer at a 2-guard who just played 80 games, averaging 20 5 & 5 ‘at this point in his career’.

If you look at overall production our chief weakness right now is 2-guard. I’m not a Wince Harder fan by any standard, but he’s definitely a ‘win now’ upgrade than whatever we have there right now. If we can get him on a good value swap, he puts the Wiz in the conversation. (Okay the conversation that says, jeez, if everybody is healthy at the same time….)

But still, take a look at any squad that may be in the DWade/LeBron sweepstakes and you can find a few instant impact prospects if you squint at it right. Many undervalued by their current teams.

Philadelphia dumps a ton of salary next year. If Elton Brand proves healthy, he’s on the outs with their current playstyle but would be an excellent fit for the Flip Saunders system (and a defensive upgrade for us).

Just saying, as a thought experiment I’m willing to consider just about anything.

Comment from doclinkin
Time April 25, 2009 at 1:11 PM

Thanks grifon.

Comment from M2
Time April 25, 2009 at 1:28 PM

People (especially Doc)…
We DO NOT need a slightly built guard!
Especially one that we’d end up getting with a VERY HIGH draft pick.
Slightly built guards that need time to mature or are possibly a couple of years off before a buy-out is possible are for late 1st round/second round draft picks.
Ex: If Juan Dixon would have played at Davidson he’d have lit that conference up the same way Curry has… I love Curry but he’s not a top 5 pick the same way Juan wasn’t.
Please throw little Ricky in the same pile. A 6′3″ 175 lb 18 year old kid that possesses no real uncanny athletic ability, shoots set shots & not actual jumpers & cheats on defense thus making for some great steals & such but also some big mistakes will get eaten alive in the NBA. I don’t care what the experts say (same experts that made Kwame the top pick?). Rubio is in the midst of an international marketing bonanza that’s great for the game (speculation is always fun & great for debate) but he is in no way the number freakin’ two pick in the draft. Ex: Little Ricky couldn’t carry a guy like say… Jordan Farmars duffle bag to practice.
Guys like Chris Paul & Deron Williams are NOT slightly built & possess off the charts athletic abilities (higher/faster/stronger). Don’t confuse them with the likes of Curry & Rubio please!

Yeah, I’m back… Seasons over… New topics

Comment from getabigboyoffense
Time April 25, 2009 at 4:49 PM

I’m an X and O’s guy who doesn’t pay much attention to the college game, so I can’t comment on any draft options, but I sure do appreciate the excellent comments that have been posted lately.

and I’m glad M2’s back (knows his b-ball), and the season’s over, and we have new topics.

Comment from GlingGling
Time April 25, 2009 at 7:34 PM

M2, Ricky is clearly a different type of point guard. About the same size as Steve Nash (who is big enough for this league 2x MVP).

I’m not going to defend what pick he is but he has something that really can’t be taught and improved except over an entire basketball career. That is court sense and as someone else said he has few superiors. Athletic ability, while also being primarily an innate characteristic, can be improved (albeit not to that of an innate players level) in an acceptable period of time.

His greatest attribute alone is worth a lot to many people in this league.

Comment from GrifonRacing
Time April 25, 2009 at 9:42 PM

After reading Doc’s post I did some reading on Rubio. Everyone seems to agree with M2 that his is very slightly built. They also say he has the type build where he will be a good body type simply by maturing. I don’t how long that will take or how many years he still has to stay overseas. Dan Fegan seems to be persuasive/resourseful in such matters so who knows.

If we don’t get the top pick (or even if we do) what are your thoughts on what we should do M2?

Comment from neal
Time April 25, 2009 at 9:46 PM

I’m with you gabbo. I’m glad there are fans on here that keep up with the college game more than us.

I predict we will have the 3rd pick. If we don’t trade it who will that likely be? What’s he like?

Comment from GrifonRacing
Time April 25, 2009 at 9:51 PM

I understand there is a certain hot dog vendor they have their eye on, but, it will probably cost us Phil Hubbards lunch money (I understand that is substantial)

Comment from GrifonRacing
Time April 25, 2009 at 9:57 PM

Neal I’m hoping Doc, Tom, SporzWiz, M2 and some others know cause I sure don’t. I’ve seen some of the higher profile guys like Thabeet and Griffin but that’s about it. Past that I’m lost. I wouldnt have a clue who we might even consider in the 2nd round.

Comment from TAG FLIP
Time April 25, 2009 at 11:45 PM

i’m excited for the 2009-10 season already. these playoffs are so boring this year without us in it. i’m excited that we have a proven winner in saunders, and that all of our guys are starting to get more serious about the game (arenas, blatche, young). but again, we have (and i re-emphasize HAVE) to stay healthy. missing 300 some odd man games to injury this season isn’t going to turn us from doormats to champions.

and i am thrilled that i am no longer the only flip around the wizards anymore! welcome to the team flip saunders! =D

Comment from GrifonRacing
Time April 26, 2009 at 12:26 AM

LOL Tag Flip… distant cousin?

Let the lottery ball bouce our way!

Comment from doclinkin
Time April 26, 2009 at 12:44 AM

We DO NOT need a slightly built guard!
Especially one that we’d end up getting with a VERY HIGH draft pick.
Slightly built guards that need time to mature or are possibly a couple of years off before a buy-out is possible are for late 1st round/second round draft picks.
Ex: If Juan Dixon would have played at Davidson he’d have lit that conference up the same way Curry has… I love Curry but he’s not a top 5 pick the same way Juan wasn’t.

Back up and re-read me on Curry. I said after the second pick I’d prefer to trade down and pick up a quality veteran but still land one of a few true PG’s _later_ in the draft as a back-up.

Eric Maynor
Ty Lawson
Nick Calathes
Darren Collison
Stef Curry
Patty Mills

All have interesting and useful qualities that this squad lacks. This year is thick in quality _back-up_ PG’s. Role players. And in this respect in most cases Rookie contracts are still cheaper than recruiting a decent player in the open market. No one is giving us the ‘contender’ discount. Yet.

On the particulars, I’d agree that in this year a guy like Stef Curry will get picked higher than I would have liked, in terms of value for pick.

I still like the kid. I get that I’m higher on Stef Curry than most folks– I’m okay with that. Feel free to leave me on that island by myself. I’m saying over the course of his career he’ll prove to be a solid pick at PG.

I don’t even disagree with you all that much with the Juan Dixon comparison, except to say he’ll be the platinum card version of Juan Dixon. (Not black card, not unlimited upside). Juan Dixon couldn’t rack assists even playing next to 3 cats who made it to the Association. (Okay 2 plus Baxter who had a cuppa coffee then shot his way out of the league, literally). Juan Dixon occasionally had trouble hitting the 3pt shot when unguarded, in college. It took him a half decade before he even started to develop a PG game in the NBA. Too late.

By contrast after playing as the offguard behind Jason Richards for 2 years, Stef Curry spent the offseason volunteering as a counselor at basketball camps run by Chris Paul and Steve Nash, quizzing them at night after camp on how to run Point. And immediately came in this year dropping double-digit dimes. Again, on a team with no other real scorer. No Wilcox, no Blake gunning from outside as a catch and shoot threat. Juan Dixon might have scored at Davidson, but he never was comfortable letting go of the ball, and never had anything like Stef’s ease, comfort and quick release with the outside shot.

And if you check Stef Curry’s results in Tournament play etc the kid comes up large. (Unlike Juan’s anemic performance in his Championship game). Ask Georgetown. Ask Maryland. When the stakes are highest he plays better.

Even in the regular season, in team losses against any top D1 schools who stack defenses against him, he’s filling the stat sheet. Racking 29pts 8 boards 6 assists against Duke, nearly singlehandedly pulling off the upset on Blake Griffin’s OK squad. And in games where he shoots poorly in the first half, in the second half he rarely fails to make the adjustment.

I understand the skepticism, I’m saying at his lowest end, imagine having a better more consistent, better shooting, smarter defending (*) Juan Dixon on the bench. The Juan who could be called upon to drop 35 in the play-offs when no one else could make a bucket. Only this one will actually pass, and hit the clutch 3 from deep. And teach Nick Young to attack off screens, shoot off the catch instead of dribbling into traffic then chucking a fadey.

And at his highest end: he’s grown 3 inches in three years, and when he sprained his ankle, his X-Rays showed his growth plates are still active. Kid is still growing. His (6′5″) pops didn’t finish growing and start to fill out until his senior year.

So, skinny aside, yeah I think this squad could stand to add IQ, passing, and clutch shooting from deep as a role player off the bench. If we don’t land the top pick.

Comment from doclinkin
Time April 26, 2009 at 12:55 AM

(* better defense): despite his size he ranks as one of the better defensive rebounding PG’s in the Draft.

http://tinyurl.com/cmhc39

And for most of the year led the entire NCAA in ball theft.

http://tinyurl.com/dhlr7m

As for Ricky. I haven’t seen enough to know. I’m taking Kobe’s word for it. Argue with him not me.

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time April 26, 2009 at 7:21 AM

doc — you’re not on the Stef island by yourself. He is going to be a terrific NBA player. Every Davidson opponent focused on him in preparation and during the game, and he still put up incredible numbers.

Talking about draft vs. trades as a way to get value in a backup guy, the real steals are in round 2, where you don’t have to guarantee the contract. In retrospect Mario Chalmers was an incredible steal last year (and i did call for us to trade our rounds 1 and 2 picks for a lower 1 and a higher 2 so that we could get him).

There could well be a backup point for us at the top of round 2. The trick will be to shed roster spots, so we have room for a 2d rookie.

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time April 26, 2009 at 7:25 AM

Whoa… just noticed this: comparing Stephen Curry to Juan Dixon is ridiculous. Curry is ten times the player.

Juan is a great guy, has a huge heart, and has made the most of his abilities in a way that you wish guys with greater abilities would do.

Juan Dixon will be successful at whatever he does in life. But, he doesn’t have anywhere near the basketball skills Stephen Curry has. He’ll contend for ROY, mark my words.

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time April 26, 2009 at 7:32 AM

I don’t have any way to judge Ricky Rubio. I’ve never seen him, and how can you make a judgment on a guy who’s 18 anyway?

Given that, my preferences in the draft are: Blake Griffin, Stephen Curry, and Dejuan Blair — in that order. Those are the guys I’d like to see us come away with.

Blair doesn’t have the size you’d like (well… vertically anyway!), but he has put up incredible numbers.

If I were a GM w/ the 2d or 3d choice in this draft, I’d be asking myself “hmmm, I wonder how I could turn this pick into *both* Curry and Blair?”

Btw, doc, you put Stef on a list of *backups* — I see him as likely to be a starter in the league. Don’t you?

Comment from neal
Time April 26, 2009 at 9:19 AM

All picks are risks but taking an 18-year old from Europe with existing contract issues is WAY too risky. Will he mature physically and emotionally? Will he adjust to the U.S.? To the NBA? He’s 18. He’d be spending a lot of his time during his first contract getting laid. An even bigger risk than Kwame was.

Comment from doclinkin
Time April 26, 2009 at 11:07 AM

Btw, doc, you put Stef on a list of *backups* — I see him as likely to be a starter in the league. Don’t you?

Realistically any rookie pick has to be looked at as a back-up, especially on a veteran/contending team. And you know, uh, Gilbert Arenas?

I’m saying his floor is as a better Juan Dixon. His ceiling is as a quality starter.

This team needs and infusion of smart savvy cunning ballers who simply know the game without having to be spoonfed. Stef Curry was taught to dribble by Muggsy Bogues, learned to shoot from his dad, grew up in and around the game and has a handful of instantly applicable skills. Chief among them is a professional attitude, leadership, mindset, IQ and situation recognition. He won’t be the first-option go-to scorer he’s had to be in college, but I guarantee you he’ll make the adjustment and find a way to maximize the gifts he’s got. Considerable gifts.

We’ve got of raw talent and potential in our youngsters. What we need is an infusion of oncourt intelligence.

Comment from doclinkin
Time April 26, 2009 at 11:22 AM

All picks are risks but taking an 18-year old from Europe with existing contract issues is WAY too risky. Will he mature physically and emotionally? Will he adjust to the U.S.? To the NBA? He’s 18. He’d be spending a lot of his time during his first contract getting laid. An even bigger risk than Kwame was.

Nope. He’s been playing in Europe at the pro level since he was 16, and over there the kid is a superduperstar. Shoot, he attends Highschool for half the day then goes to his afterschool job of being adored by thousands. Better believe the kid gets all the nookie he’ll ever need already, if that’s your concern.

Fact is underclass NCAA college kids will have a tougher adjustment. The Euro leagues won’t even allow you oncourt if you don’t know fundamentals. They play one game a week and spend 6-8 hours a day drilling team defense, footwork, etc. There’s never a question whether a Euroballer understands the game and just wants to show off their flash.

Take a look at a guy like Tony Parker, dropped onto the Spurs at age 18. The kid already had many years playing at a high level in France. He was expected to be a pro. Next to no adjustment period.

Ditto Ricky, who has been getting paid to play & practice since he was 15. And if you ever see the kid interviewed he’s been poised calm insightful since back then.

No the real adjustment he will HAVE to make is in his mid-range game. He can hit the outside shot, he can handle and pass in traffic. But he can only finish at the rim in the open court off the break. And while he will hit a few Jamison-eque flip shots and running floaters from awkward angles, he’d prefer to drive in then dump to his frontcourt Bigs. He needs a more reliable pull up jumper off the dribble.

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time April 26, 2009 at 11:38 AM

great points, doc — I couldn’t agree more that Stef would be a terrific addition to our (or any) team. As to Rubio, you have the creds and analysis, so I’ll line up w/ you that it’d fine to take him #2 in the draft.

On the other hand… maybe we’ll get the #1 pick!

Comment from doclinkin
Time April 26, 2009 at 11:57 AM

Or a team makes an offer that’s too good to pass up for that #2. Not trading down just to burn salary and deadwood alone. But adding a top quality 2-guard who can play next to Gil, plus picks etc. or getting a defensive upgrade next to Haywood.

Teams that covet Rubio:
–Portland (Rudy + incentives)
–Sacramento (Martin? +)
–New York (nothing I want)
–Raptors (You can put together a good trade for a re-signed Chris Bosh, though for the money we’d have to trade them El Capitawn. An upgrade, but it’d be tough to do.)

But yeah, if we get the #1 it’s all good, no question.

Comment from M2
Time April 26, 2009 at 12:02 PM

Steph Curry has been through everything you say he has sure, but most of these kids have. They all have a story (the right mentors, coaches, AAU team experience, etc)… Now I’m not mad at Stephs story at all (I actually like it & like him) & he will no doubt become an immediate face for someones organization because of it, the talent he possesses to go along with it & the fact that said organization will use a very high draft pick to acquire him. When an organization uses a very high draft pick to grab a good looking kid with that pedigree & skill set they’re DEFINITELY gonna give him a shot at shinning & not a seat as the 12th man on their bench. So we’ll see what happens with Steph. I’m cheering for him, I just don’t want him at #2 in the draft for all of the reasons I find obvious.

In any event, I wasn’t coming after you (doc) regarding Steph… I just threw him in the Rubio pile because I know a lot of other people (Tom) are high on this kid.
I actually think Steph & Rubio will both fill out a little bit & be solid players (think Brent Barry or maybe Portlands Rudy Fernandez on an amazing day, not sure about year in year out starters – JJ Redick, Adam Morrison, etc anyone?) but I definitely think they’ll get more than their fair chance just like the two players I just mentioned have… I just don’t think they are #2 in ANY draft class.
& please don’t be all quick to compare Reddick & Morrisons skill sets to Rubio & Currys. It’s an analogy more for hype reasons than skill comparisons. Hell, both of those clowns were on the USA squad two summers ago as the only kids right out of college on the 22 man roster… What PR & what a joke. But that’s how this all works most of the time folks.

Anyway, I just think a kid like J Critt (because he’s fast, strong, has a good handle & plays nice on ball D) will gobble both of those guys up in practice daily for at least the 1st season, maybe forever? Keeping in mind that Curry & Crittenton are both 21 year olds…

Blah blah blah… I’m babbling & most likely all off message confusing even myself at this point. My hope is obviously that you all understand what I’m TRYING to say …

Comment from M2
Time April 26, 2009 at 12:07 PM

Tom is a great example Doc…
You’ve ranted & raved with such fervor & “knowledge” to such a degree about Rubio that he’s willing to jump on board with you & assume he’s fine at the #2 spot in the draft.
Wow…

Comment from M2
Time April 26, 2009 at 12:30 PM

& Parker is a stud no doubt… But lets not forget that he had TIM DUNCAN in his prime clogging up the low post & a great coach in Pop to learn from. A coach that was pretty damn unhappy with him early on (especially after that series vs Kidd) & was looking to dump him.
Parker benefitted mightily from being dropped in the right system that same way Rondo has in Boston (surrounded by three HOF’s last season, a little easier to take a few lumps in that environment)…
Now I LOVE both Parker & Rondo & think that they are exceptional yet unreasonable examples. Also keep in mind that neither of them were anywhere near the top of their draft classes… That makes them all the more better. Kwame Brown as a late 1st / 2nd round pick & everyones happy.
Rubio & Curry are NOT top 3 picks!

Comment from doclinkin
Time April 26, 2009 at 4:08 PM

Tom is a great example Doc…
You’ve ranted & raved with such fervor & “knowledge” to such a degree about Rubio that he’s willing to jump on board with you & assume he’s fine at the #2 spot in the draft.

Sure, call me the hype man. Hey I’m just offering one man’s opinion, backed up by whatever facts are available. If folks are convinced by actual facts instead of bold assertions, you know, that’s their problem.

Here’s the part that’s an assertion & hard to prove: the Spanish League is a better training ground for a pro player than the NCAA’s. Here’s the part that’s not: Ricky tops that league in assists/40 and steals, is hitting 48% from 3. Was voted DPOY of the league. And has collected accolades from Scouts and NBA players both.

Feel free to decide for yourself if we need a player like that.

Parker benefitted mightily from being dropped in the right system that same way Rondo has in Boston (surrounded by three HOF’s last season, a little easier to take a few lumps in that environment)…

So the argument is this is a bad environment for a rookie point guard? I dunno. Seems to me we’ve got a ton of players who ought to be able to score and make him look good.

But while we’re on the topic, Crittenton would destroy a rookie PG in practice? Ok, How? Problem is, JCrit is hitting 14% from three, and averages fewer assts/40 minutes than Nate Robinson, or well, Juan Dixon.

That’s just not very good at all. Some part of playing point guard is actually making a few points. He seems like an earnest heard-working kid, maybe Doctor Hoops Dave Hopla can build him a shot, but right now he’s a total self-check from anywhere except directly under the basket. Not where you generally put your point guard. Not great for court spacing.

And that’s sorta my point. 19-win season, and we’re next to last leaguewide in production from either back court position.

http://www.82games.com/0809/BYPOS3.HTM

We get Gil coming back. (knock wood). But if we can trade down off a #2-5 pick, land a proven 2-guard who can play next to him — and still pick up another option at PG, who can hit from outside and make easy buckets for the other 2nd line players. Well that’s all to the better.

Then if Javaris develops, nice, if not, there’s another cheap option. But clearly this team has need of a fall-back position at the 1-spot.

Comment from GrifonRacing
Time April 26, 2009 at 8:41 PM

Doc… if we did get the #2 pick and took Rubio would it be a possibility he could play for us next season or is it a definate we will have to wait for him at least a season or two?

Comment from neal
Time April 26, 2009 at 9:42 PM

Why would he declare for the draft if he couldn’t come over pretty soon?

Comment from GrifonRacing
Time April 27, 2009 at 1:02 AM

Doc and some reading have gotten me pretty excited about Rubio. The one thing people don’t seem to know is how his “buy out” will go. He doesn’t make much by NBA standards yet his buy out seems to be millions of dollars? As Doc has said.. the courts sometimes make these thing equitable. Sometimes they don’t. It’s a crap shoot at this point it seems as to whether he can be a Wizard next season or a season down the road.

I know stashing players overseas doesn’t really seem to work for us… V Dub still waiting…. It may not be the worst idea to take the best potential point guard with the 2nd… or maybe 3rd pick and let him play overseas next year. That would give us Rubio hopefully the next season and open up the roster spot for our second round pick. Given after next season we could potentially dump the salaries of Etan, Mike, Pesh it may give us financial flexability to welcome the “scraps” of next season’s free agent market. The Scraps ain’t a looking too bad LOL.

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time April 27, 2009 at 6:35 AM

We aren’t going to have any salary available based on Etan, Mike and Pech going away. We will have to sign Brendan and Dominic, and Caron will be coming up right behind them.

The only way we can dump salary is by trading a long-term contract for a short-term contract.

Comment from M2
Time April 27, 2009 at 12:52 PM

You guys just don’t get it…
He’s 18!
It’s hype!
Tony Kukoc anyone? I mean, “The Waiter” was nice and all for a few seasons but I remember every outlet in the world telling me he was “the greatest import ever, the European MJ”…
Rubio is not the #2 pick.
Doc, your concerns with J Crit only further demonstrate my argument. I truly believe that he (of the miserable stats you reference) will gobble the kids you’re excited about up. So what does that say about the kids you’re excited about?
Time will tell… Hell, I hope he’s fantastic… Just been around long enough to know he wont be.
We drafted Juan Carlos a few years back because he was “Europes greatest guard”, waited around for him, traded him, etc. Yeah he was nice and all (kinda) but he definitely put his tail back between his legs & ran back to the more comfortable confines of the EL…

Comment from TAG FLIP
Time April 27, 2009 at 1:05 PM

our biggest problems are the frontcourt. we are stocked at guards with arenas, james, crittenton, young, stevenson, mcguire, and butler (the latter 2 can play guard/forward). our frontcourt needs some help. we need either blake griffin or hasheem thabeet. if we don’t get either one of those we just need to trade the pick away (or draft rubio then do a deal similar to how we got jamison before 04-05)

Comment from M2
Time April 27, 2009 at 1:06 PM

Thank you

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time April 27, 2009 at 1:17 PM

Hasheem Thabeet is *not* ready to contribute in the NBA. Have you actually watched him play the game?

M2 is a *big* Crittenton fan, so any suggestion that we have needs at the point will rile him.

As to being “stocked at guard” — that is a laughable idea! Gil is coming off an injury, James is a bum, Crittenton is untested, Young is one of the least productive players in the league whom we hope improves, Stevenson is a journeyman at best, and McGuire and Butler are better suited to play forward.

Nonetheless, if we can get the right deal for the pick (if it’s not #1=BG), sure.

Comment from M2
Time April 27, 2009 at 1:24 PM

We can bring your guy Dee Brown back Tom…

Comment from neal
Time April 27, 2009 at 1:29 PM

Sure looks to me like we’re in better shape at the 4 & 5 slots than the others. Three pretty good players at each position. And if Blatche can play the 3 we’re in good shape there also.

Comment from M2
Time April 27, 2009 at 1:33 PM

& Rubio is supposedly 8/19 from three so far this season… Not necessarily the reps I’m looking for when deciding whether or not he can shoot (because the jury is out, most scouts admit that his shot needs serious work)…
Anyway, let me get off this ridiculous subject already…

Here’s a partial link (draftexpress) accessing his skills (not bad, but thinking he’s a future NBA stud is pure & unadulterated speculation at its highest):

Blogging through the Copa del Rey, Part Two
February 22, 2009
Lest we forget the amazing performance delivered by Ricky Rubio in the quarterfinals, which unfortunately wasn’t enough to avoid the upset by the local Madrid team Estudiantes. Rubio put together some of the most impressive moments of his career thus far in the second half, finishing the game with 16 points, 7 assists and 6 steals.

What was ironic is that he was quite awful in the first quarter, being burned repeatedly by the very experienced Corey L. Brewer (Arkansas), while turning the ball over on some very risky passes. He sat for that reason for most of the second quarter, only to emerge midway through the third to give his team a huge shot in the arm that got them right back in the game, immediately scoring two consecutive layups going coast to coast by himself.

Rubio’s perimeter shooting remains very much a concern, as highlighted by the 0-4 he shot in this particular game. He is shooting 42% from beyond the arc on the season thus far, but that’s on a very small sample size (8/19). His mechanics still look poor, and he’s especially dreadful shooting the ball off the dribble—which is a big reason why he was forced to pass the ball in the game’s decisive possession (resulting in two free throws for Eduardo Hernandez Sonseca, one of which he fatally missed) rather than try to score himself. Rubio has become fairly decent spotting up with his feet set, but NBA scouts will want to see more to be totally convinced.

A part of his game we’ve discussed time after time, but continue to take great delight in, is his uncanny knack for getting in the passing lanes. Needless to say, Rubio leads the ACB in this category at 3 steals per-40. One of the most fun parts of seeing Rubio perform is watching him off the ball defensively. As the opposition moves the ball around the court, you can see Rubio anticipating their next move, closing down angles just as a pass is about to be made, pouncing at just the right moment, getting his long arms on the ball to create the deflection, and taking the ball the other way. At one point he had three consecutive steals in three possessions, all of which finished with a basket for his team—highlighting the way he can change the complexion of a game in his own unique way.

Speaking of which, you’re going to find a lot of differing opinions about Rubio’s ability to translate his style of play to the NBA. Some scouts still question his athleticism and perimeter shooting.

According to David Carro, the Spanish partner of Rubio’s NBA agent, Dan Fegan, who we spoke with here at the Copa del Rey, there is “still a chance that Rubio could find his way into this year’s draft.” Negotiations are reportedly underway to lower his buyout to more manageable proportions, possibly 3-4 million Euro. A solution could come as early as “this month” Carro told us, and in that case, Rubio would be able to afford getting out of his contract if he were to be “a top-3 pick” (which he very likely is), as long as he could pay off the buyout over the course of his rookie deal. Asked why Joventut would have any reason to even negotiate considering the leverage they hold in this situation, Carro responded that Rubio is the “image of the team” and that they “would not want to have a mad player.”

Comment from doclinkin
Time April 27, 2009 at 1:44 PM

Doc, your concerns with J Crit only further demonstrate my argument. I truly believe that he (of the miserable stats you reference) will gobble the kids you’re excited about up. So what does that say about the kids you’re excited about?

Where’s the argument? You’re just stating that you don’t believe a guy will succeed. It’s not like I can argue you don’t believe that. You believe it.

You just don’t back it up with much more than, uh, having been around a while. Okay, cool. You may have solid bonafides in draft analysis, I got no frame of reference for that. I just haven’t seen an argument beyond that. No evidence or actual facts.

Fill in the blank. Rubio won’t succeed, why: Because he’s from Europe? Because he’s 18? Because he’s hyped? Because JCNavarro is also Spanish? Because Toni Kukoc is also from Europe?

Okay, in order: Rudy Fernandez. Tony Parker at age 18. Hype = Kobe, scouts, GM’s, coaches, stats, awards. Rudy Fernandez and Jose Calderon. And Toni Kukoc was hyped?– he was the #29th pick in the 2nd round.

Here’s a few arguments you could use: Navarro jumped back up to ~21.5 pts per 40 when he could only score 16 pts per 40 in the NBA–and Ricky isn’t as good a scorer even in Europe.

True enough. Scoring ain’t why he’s attracted attention. The assists and floor leadership at both ends and at a young age are why he’s captured the imagination of scouts etc.

Though it’s interesting to note: at age 18 JCN averaged the same # of points per 40 minutes as does Rubio right now (17.6). Difference is JCN has alwaye had suspect defense even in the Euro/ACB leagues, where Ricky pulled the DPOY in the ACB.

Another argument: high assist totals don’t always translate to NBA game. Otherwise Jared Jordan would be on an NBA roster, not tearing up the D-League.

Fair enough. But Ricky has played against NBAers in international competition– not just the USA squad, all the international players as well. Did well and caught the attention of scouts, players. Still made dimes, steals, points.

Understood, I get resistant to hype as well, I been around awhile myself if that’s a qualification, and even though I have doubts, I keep seeing signs where this kid looks good. Even though I’m looking through a blurry lens, with gaps and pauses in signal drops…

If NBAers who have seen him and played him reference his name as a solid internat’l baller to look out for, well you’ll have to excuse me for taking their say-so over you. No offense intended.

Comment from M2
Time April 27, 2009 at 2:34 PM

Rubio WILL succeed!
With success defined as: Solid floor general at 15 mins per contest early in his career, not gonna dazzle you with uncanny athleticism but also not gonna make any huge mistakes. Shows an exciting upside with great basketball instincts both offensively as a distributor & defensively as a ball hawk with good anticipation. In summary, don’t look for Ricky to be any more than a nice back up in his first few seasons similar to what Steve Blake was.

Hell, this blog gets their panties mushy when Pech comes in during garbage time & knocks down a few uncontested threes, so I’m just trying to provide a little levity.

I’m just saying, don’t expect this kid to come to town & rearrange our line up any time soon as the next Steve Nash…

I don’t want him in DC…

& I don’t think he is anywhere near the 2nd pick in the 2009 draft…

No offense taken… I like you!

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time April 27, 2009 at 3:11 PM

LOL — !

Btw, I *like* Crittenton. He is showing real signs of productivity. Unproven player, you won’t disagree w/ that, but I’m happy we’ve got him.