Comment from getabigboyoffense
Time February 5, 2009 at 11:26 AM

Happy B-day AJ

Comment from getabigboyoffense
Time February 5, 2009 at 11:28 AM

Please don’t ascribe any blame to [Jamison],” Tapscott said. “They loaded their entire defensive package to stop him.” Don’t even think that we might blame AJ, Tap, we ascribe ALL of the blame to you.

Tapscott said his game plan would be “AJ left, AJ right, AJ up the middle.” Now let’s think about how that great plan played out…AJ was 4-20, 1-7 from 3-point land and had 6 rebounds..BUT he still got over 40 minutes of court time. Tap, give the man a break. Give the team a break. Give the fans a break. AJ is a great offensive player, but even he can have a bad night. A good coach would limit his minutes when that happens.

The Wiz defensive scheme that has our center running almost to half court to double-team the point guard and then running back to try to get position on the opposing center who has rolled to the basket and who has been temporarily picked up by our SF who, now having been relieved of that responsibility, has to find his man who has been temporarily picked up by some other Wiz defender who now…we all get the picture, is a stupid attempt to hide our lack of man-to-man defensive capability. We’ve seen it all too often with the Wiz. Why do other teams get so many open looks at 3-point shots? The Wiz are all running around looking for their man and the opposition just swings the ball to the forgotten player. This is NOT the fault of the players. It is the fault of the coaching. The defensive scheme has the guys constantly out of position. That leads to the opposition getting too many easy shots and too many offensive rebounds. It also forces the Wiz to commit too many stupid fouls while scrambling to recover from being out of position.

Mayo’s dunk on Monday was nothing in terms of disrespecting the Wiz compared to the quote from Devin Harris (and I don’t think Harris intended it as a sign of disrespect).
“It’s been a while since I got easy shots at the basket,” he said. “It’s been a struggle. I’m constantly taking contested shots. It’s good to finally get a night where I could just kind of control the paint.”

Tapscott’s “coaching” just about eliminates any possibility of the Wiz winning a game. With big-buddy Ernie’s obvious approval, Tap has made Washington the laughing-stock of the NBA. National TV announcers and opposing announcers talk about how really bad the team is, while at the same time they rave about the players. Just who might be at fault for not winning even though he has good players?

Comment from SportzWiz
Time February 5, 2009 at 12:11 PM

Gabbo I think AJ was one of the participants in the on court in game yesterday.. The one where they blindfold the participant and have him find a person on the court based on the crowds cheering.

AJ Can you confirm this?

Comment from lenman
Time February 5, 2009 at 12:16 PM

Getabigboy:

Thank you for pointing out what should be obvious to the entire coaching staff. To ask a 7 foot guy to step out beyond the 3-point line and hedge on a guard and then get back in position 20 feet to the rim is unheard of. That has got to be the most confusing, ineffective defense to play. Certainly its not the defense you use with an inexperienced rookie and a slow afoot PF (Songalia). We would be better off playing zone or taking our lumps with straight up man to man defense. I hope this is not the defemse our guru Randy Ayers prescribed.

I liked the big lineup which gives us tow assets an inside presence on offense and someone else to protest the rim, especially given the junk defenses we play. Also, offensively every once in a while it would be nice to post up your center, rather than having him run all over the floor setting picks for our jump shooters.

Comment from neal
Time February 5, 2009 at 2:46 PM

Tom, I think Grunfeld and Tapscott were hoping he would do well and remain the coach on a permanent basis. EG took a chance and it didn’t work out.

I don’t have any problem with the defensive scheme of always having two guys on the ball. I presume that originated with Ayers. I’m pretty sure most college teams do this. But it means that the guys have to REALLY hustle around the court to pick up the open man. Which they’re not doing, either by lack of commitment or, as you say lenman, inexperience or inability. I think it’s more a lack of commitment.

I agree that McGuire is not a defensive superstar, just better than most. He’s much more than we could ever have expected, and fills a hole we had: backup to Butler. I have higher hopes for Young. I think he could be our starting 2 for years to come.

What ever happened to following your shot? I guess the Wiz have decided that’s not important. I was taught that the shooter should get a big portion of the long rebounds since he could see where the ball was going. Of course, the shooter is also responsible for getting back on D, so he’s got to really get on his horse if he can’t get to the rebound.

Comment from Aj
Time February 5, 2009 at 4:49 PM

Last night was crazy. Everything went great at the game. Besides the actual game. I was originally suppose to be sitting way up in the nosebleeds but got upgraded to the lower level. Then this guy asked me if my bother and I wanted to be one of the kids who shakes the players hands as they came out. The players are huge, especially javale mcgee. Lastly I got picked to play HOT AND COLD where they blind fold you and you have to find G wiz. I won a bag of cool stuff including a mini gilbert arenas zepher’s jersey and an autograph from d-mac. What a first experience. I was so dissapointed when my friend told me caron wasn’t in the lineup. Besides that and twans woeful shooting it was all good. Sportwiz I saw you in the hallway and wanted to say hi but you were talking to someone.

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time February 5, 2009 at 6:31 PM

neal — I have just the opposite opinion. It’s easy for me to see the ways that Dominic can improve and is working on improving. He is going to have a dozen year or more career in the league if he stays healthy.

Nick, not so much — of course I can see his incredible athleticism, length, soft shot, quickness. You don’t have to tell me that stuff, as I’m not blind. But the only way he ever impacts a game is with his scoring, and his FG% is average and no better.

Can Nick improve? Sure, and I hope he does. Grifonracing has pointed out that his defense is improving, and I’ve noted that a little bit too. Lets see if it stays that way or gets even better the rest of the season.

Realize — 1 guy out of 100 (or some big number anyway) lives up to his ‘potential’.

Comment from dcbutler357
Time February 5, 2009 at 6:58 PM

AJ,

I am so happy for you!! What a wonderful birthday!!
That is a very refreshing story, and that is what the NBA is about….Where seeing it live happens…… FANTASTIC!!

Comment from Bridge
Time February 5, 2009 at 7:13 PM

Yay AJ! I’m so happy for you !!

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time February 5, 2009 at 7:56 PM

AJ — how fantastic!! Good for you and I hope you get to another game soon!!

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time February 5, 2009 at 8:09 PM

Dave Berri’s analysis of every player and every team at mid-season is right here. Look at the tables he shows, and you’ll see why we are where we are — and you’ll also see that our most productive player is Dominic McGuire. JaVale is improved from where he was at 41 games, because he is getting time to show himself, btw. Ditto, Crittenton. Antawn and Caron are substantially down from their ’07 numbers.

Note by the way, that if you add up the Wins Produced of each player on a team, you get a number quite close to the number of wins that team has. Over the league, the correlation by season’s end is about 96%. That’s what makes the WP metric so much more useful than any other. It actually correlates to the success a team has.

Comment from getabigboyoffense
Time February 5, 2009 at 8:31 PM

Now I’ve heard it all. The fans chanted
E-D-D-I-E J-O-R-D-A-N last night and Tapscott said that that was because the fans were dissatisfied with the players’ energy during the game.

Okay, now I’m certain that one of two things are true. Either Tapscott is the dummest human being to be placed on this planet (doesn’t even know when he is being dis’d), or he is the most arragant person to be placed on this planet (willing to throw anyone and everyone under the bus in an attempt to save his own miserable butt).

Tap has made some outrageous statements in the past, but that one takes the prize. I guess someone has to spell it out for that man.

Hey FOOL, the fans were trying to tell management that even the fired E-D-D-I-E J-O-R-D-A-N was a better choice than you.

Comment from getabigboyoffense
Time February 5, 2009 at 8:46 PM

Apology for the bad spelling and grammar: IS true; DUMBEST; DISS’D; ARROGANT. The more angry I am, the worst writer I become.

Comment from getabigboyoffense
Time February 5, 2009 at 9:08 PM

Tom M. Let me start by saying that I believe that Dominic McGuire plays with tremendous energy and heart, and I love that part of his game. However, I really don’t care what Dave Berri’s tables demonstrate as an analysis of Dominic McGuire’s productivity. First of all, Dominic is not a GREAT defensive player; he stands out because he is simply better than the other Wizards. More importantly, Dominic does not contribute offensively, in fact, he is an offensive detriment. When Dominic is in the game, and the Wiz are on offense, it is 4 vs. 5 because he is no offensive threat. It is obvious that he is working on his shooting…I watch him before all of the home games, and he works very hard. If he is to be successful, he has to improve that part of his game so that the opposition doesn’t ignore him and continue to double-team someone else. My point is that Dominic could be the poster-boy for why statistics are only one part of an assessment of a player’s value to a team. The fact that Berri’s system ranks him the best of the Wizards should tell everyone that Berri’s system is faulty. If you asked 50 knowledgeable basketball people to rank the 15 roster Wizards from 1-15 with 1 being best and 15 being least, Dominic would not be in the top 10.

Having said that, I believe that Dominic has the right attitude and physical skills to be a very productive NBA player. If he can develop a scoring game, he will be terrific. He is a keeper.

Comment from getabigboyoffense
Time February 5, 2009 at 9:09 PM

Turn the Tap OFF!!!!!

Comment from getabigboyoffense
Time February 5, 2009 at 10:10 PM

Hey Tom M.

No game tonight. I’d like to write about two of your previous blogs that were addressed to me:

Getabig — why do you think we disagree often? I usually think your posts are right on!

and

Oh… I guess you *disagree* w/ me — even tho I usually *agree* w/ you!! Hey, that doesn’t seem right, does it?

Tom M.,

I think that your blogs are insightful and well-thought-out. I always read them, and I always enjoy them. I think that it is great that you are so positive that your opinions are right because they are statistically correct (and no, I am not being a smart a–). You are not shooting from the hip, you have some “authority” to support your thoughts.

With all due respect…

I frequently disagree with your evidence, authorities and, consequently, your conclusions. I think that baseball is the more perfect game for statistical analysis. With the limited possibility of umpiring stupidly, the baseball game is the same for every player. However, basketball is at the constant whim of the officials. I would dare say that most NBA fans understand that certain players and certain teams get the “calls”, for example, LeBronze, rarely travels; the Lakers rarely lose at home; etc.

Basketball is more a human game than a statistical game. It is constantly in motion. Ten gigantic, very athletic humans throwing themselves at each other at great speeds and at great heights to try to put one ball in one basket, or to prevent the opposition from doing so. Their conditioning is a tribute to the fact that someone is not injured on every play. Unlike baseball, where contact is limited to touching the opposing player with the ball/glove, basketball players are in constant contact. Sometimes a referee decides that the contact is a foul, other times the same contact is incidental. It is a human decision. It is imperfect. It is difficult to capture and measure. But, it reflects on the players statistics.

Basketball fans love the action of the game; the fact that the game is fluid; the fact that the momentum can change from one possession to another. Basketball fans don’t want to have their dreams of a great win or a tremendous play limited by the statistical possibility of that win or play happening. Basketball statistics have value as a reporters fuel, not as a fan’s hope.

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time February 5, 2009 at 10:24 PM

Getabig (I almost wrote Betagig!!) — I love basketball, and it is by far the most athletic, fascinating sport to watch of all; we agree. I’m not interested in basketball because it allows me to look at statistics — the opposite.

Now, here’s a question? What would make statistics *actually* believable to you? What would make you believe that a statistical analysis of a particular kind actually told you how much a particular player contributed to winning?

To me, the fact that the Wages of Wins system actually predicts how a team will do to about a 96% accuracy — something e.g. the league’s EFF system won’t do — suffices for me to place my trust in it. If you take all the players in the league, look at their WP stats, place them in their actual team alignments, then add up all the results for the players on each team, you wind up with an overall 96% match to team results.

There really isn’t any arguing with that, is there? Now, that doesn’t mean that the *more productive* player is the more entertaining player — not a bit. Chauncy Billups isn’t nearly as entertaining as Alan Iverson. But, when they swapped teams, Denver got much better and Detroit got much worse. WP predicted that. Dave Berri — who is a big Detroit fan — predicted that. He was right. How about them apples?

Comment from GrifonRacing
Time February 5, 2009 at 10:37 PM

AJ…. SportzWiz was right! It was you out on the court trying to find G-Wiz. That’s Great! What a wonderful first game for you. I bet you won’t forget that one anytime soon I sure wish they would have won to complete your first experience.

Ahhh GetaBB you sound so very much like someone very dear to my heart, say oh, about 2 years ago…. Me. I used to have the very same “differences of opinion”. You too will, in time, learn to appreciate the analytical side as I have. I still hate “numbers”, but, they become a lot more interesting in the hands of a gunslinger that knows how to shoot.

Comment from getabigboyoffense
Time February 5, 2009 at 10:45 PM

And a good evening to you Tom M., also. Good to see you on the blog.

I’d like to address your blog statement:
“To me, the fact that the Wages of Wins system actually predicts how a team will do to about a 96% accuracy — something e.g. the league’s EFF system won’t do — suffices for me to place my trust in it. If you take all the players in the league, look at their WP stats, place them in their actual team alignments, then add up all the results for the players on each team, you wind up with an overall 96% match to team results.

There really isn’t any arguing with that, is there?”

My reaction is Huh? You bet there is arguing with that.

Tom, you are asking everyone to accept someone’s statistical analysis as fact. It is not fact. Just because someone has developed a statistical formula to analyze some data doesn’t make that formula correct. It doesn’t take into account any of the human factors that influence the game of basketball. How do you address the fact that Dave Berri’s system rates Dominic as “our most productive player”. Come on my friend, if you actually believe that, you are not a basketball fan.

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time February 5, 2009 at 10:51 PM

Now, as to entertaining vs. productive and then as to Dominic McGuire:

Tim Duncan isn’t as entertaining as Kobe Bryant, but over the years he has been a bit more productive. Dominic isn’t all that entertaining (although he may be getting there), certainly not as entertaining as Nick, who can be amazing for minutes as a time.

But lets look at what Dominic does compared to an average 3 in the league.

First of all, he doesn’t shoot well yet — he is improving, but he still ain’t good. He shoots @ 42%, compared to an average 3′s 48%.

His FT% has been improving very rapidly, but to date it’s still only 69% overall, compared to an average 3′s 76%.

But, Dominic doesn’t shoot much — and every shot he *doesn’t* take gets shot by someone else. He does different things:

An average 3 gets 7.6 rebounds every 48 minutes. Dominic gets 10.5.

An average 3 gets 1.8 steals and 2.8 turnovers. Dominic gets 1.4 steals and 2.1 turnovers. Here too he is ahead of the average.

An average 3 gets .8 blocks every 48 minutes. Dominic gets 1.7.

An average 3 gets 3.6 assists every 48 minutes. Dominic gets 4.1.

An average 3 commits 4.2 fouls every 48 minutes. Dominic commits 3.

Right now, Dominic is the most improved player in the league and one of the better 3s in the league. I think he is likely always to be an opportunity shooter rather than a go-to scorer. But, his efficiency will go up. His form is good, his average is already getting better, there’s no reason he won’t be just fine.

Dominic McGuire has a chance to be a star in this league.

Comment from GrifonRacing
Time February 5, 2009 at 10:55 PM

Ducking in advance. Oh he is a huge basketball fan, and, you just challenged his God. The carnage may be insurmountable LMAO. Get ready my friend you are about to be statistic’d to within an inch of your life

Comment from getabigboyoffense
Time February 5, 2009 at 10:57 PM

“Ahhh GetaBB you sound so very much like someone very dear to my heart, say oh, about 2 years ago…. Me. I used to have the very same “differences of opinion”. You too will, in time, learn to appreciate the analytical side as I have. I still hate “numbers”, but, they become a lot more interesting in the hands of a gunslinger that knows how to shoot.” – GrifonRacing

GrifonRacing,

there’s a new sheriff in town! Been there, done that. The gunslinger is outdrawn and outshot. Stay tuned.

Comment from GrifonRacing
Time February 5, 2009 at 11:00 PM

LOL… think so huh?

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time February 5, 2009 at 11:00 PM

Getabig — it’s not the statistical analysis that makes Dom a good player! Obviously not! It’s the things he does. What the analysis does is let you *quantify* players’ contribution to their teams’ wins. That’s all.

E.g. when Nick is on, I love watching him! I hate watching him when he isn’t on, but in both cases there is the drama of Nick — he is very entertaining. I wish him well.

But, Dominic gets about 3 more rebounds per 48 than an average 3. That’s not a “statistical analysis”, it’s a simple fact, a real numbers. So are his low number of fouls, his high number of blocks, his excellent turnover-to-steal ratio, his above average assist rate, and so forth.

Are you really telling me those things don’t make him a better player than an average 3? Are you really one of those guys who values only scoring as a contribution to wins? I’m not going to say — as you said of me — “you are not a basketball fan,” what’s the point of that?

Maybe a good point is that I try to think as if I was a GM — not as a fan. Note t hat I said “think.” When I watch the game, I’m like every other fan; I want to be entertained, and I want to see my team win.

Comment from getabigboyoffense
Time February 5, 2009 at 11:01 PM

Tom M.

Your agruments are only plausible if one accepts your basic premise that Dave Berri’s analysis of basketball productivity is worth anything. His placing Dominic McGuire as the most productive of Wizards has obviously deemed his analysis to be unfit for professional basketball analysis consumption.

Comment from GrifonRacing
Time February 5, 2009 at 11:02 PM

Pack for a long journey.

Comment from getabigboyoffense
Time February 5, 2009 at 11:04 PM

GrifonRacing, The gunslinger may be the most proflific typist, but he is not the best b-ball man. I’ve got him in my sights.

Comment from GrifonRacing
Time February 5, 2009 at 11:05 PM

Ok you 2 I’m outta here

GetaBB I tried lol. You will no doubt have to learn the hard was as I did.

Tom… see ya tomorrow Bud

Comment from getabigboyoffense
Time February 5, 2009 at 11:05 PM

GrifonRacing, obviously, you’ve been there before.

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time February 5, 2009 at 11:06 PM

Getabig — read my last. I’m not “arguing” that Dominic rebounds well; I’m just counting the rebounds!

Anyway, this is not worth arguing about with one of my favorite bloggers. Lets agree to disagree and see what happens in Dom’s career over the next year or so, ok? I’m sure that just as I wish Nick well, so too you wish Dominic well.

Grifonracing, I don’t do flame wars with anyone — especially not someone I enjoy as much as our friend Getabig.

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time February 5, 2009 at 11:07 PM

G’night guys.

Comment from getabigboyoffense
Time February 5, 2009 at 11:08 PM

Good night Tom M. sleep well. We’ll resume tomorrow.

Comment from dcbutler357
Time February 5, 2009 at 11:25 PM

LOL….What is this “pardon the interruption”, blog style??

I said this earlier in the season….you two need your own show…lol..

Grif can be the moderator.

Comment from M2
Time February 6, 2009 at 1:17 AM

Allow me to reintroduce myself… My name is M2, & I stand almost 100% behind everything Gabbo has typed in this thread.
I too question Tom M’s analysis often but definitely enjoy what he brings to the party because I can feel his passion…

In any event, Dom is no where near one of the better threes in the league & no where near one of the better Wizards (let alone the “most productive)…

RE:
“However, I really don’t care what Dave Berri’s tables demonstrate as an analysis of Dominic McGuire’s productivity. First of all, Dominic is not a GREAT defensive player; he stands out because he is simply better than the other Wizards. More importantly, Dominic does not contribute offensively, in fact, he is an offensive detriment. When Dominic is in the game, and the Wiz are on offense, it is 4 vs. 5 because he is no offensive threat. It is obvious that he is working on his shooting…I watch him before all of the home games, and he works very hard. If he is to be successful, he has to improve that part of his game so that the opposition doesn’t ignore him and continue to double-team someone else. My point is that Dominic could be the poster-boy for why statistics are only one part of an assessment of a player’s value to a team. The fact that Berri’s system ranks him the best of the Wizards should tell everyone that Berri’s system is faulty. If you asked 50 knowledgeable basketball people to rank the 15 roster Wizards from 1-15 with 1 being best and 15 being least, Dominic would not be in the top 10.
Having said that, I believe that Dominic has the right attitude and physical skills to be a very productive NBA player. If he can develop a scoring game, he will be terrific. He is a keeper.” AMEN

Hell, I could pull almost everything you wrote… I’ve literally stopped posting long winded comments because Gabbo exists & thus my two cents aren’t necessary because of the redundancy factor. I’ll chime in when I don’t agree with Gabbo (no homo) but in the meantime, CO-SIGN! …

Comment from Wizards4Life
Time February 6, 2009 at 1:43 AM

M2 the fact that you took the time to read all that is impressive because they take like 4 pages to get there points across i do read what i can.. i can see both point of view but as it stands right now i can neither agree or disagree with Tom or GABBO.. but one thing is sure they know Basketball

Comment from GrifonRacing
Time February 6, 2009 at 1:59 AM

M2… Rofl… how did I KNOW you would chime in too?

pretty predictable perhaps? I’ll give you the very same advise. DUCK…. !!

You guys are relatively new here (and welcome… you guys fuel Tom’s fire as I did a couple years ago… won the “Roger Mason” thing too LOL … a victory i’m sure both Tom and I cherish to this day). I’m kind of a veteran of the blog so to speak. The OLD guys like Neal, Tom, and WizardsFusion pre-date me…. but not by a whole lot. I’ve kind of learned as I’ve gone…. been through Will, then Eric, now SportzWiz. It’s been a Great Journey. Thing is don’t get too emotionally involved in it… don’t get frustrated by it….. don’t get into personal battles – rather take the best of both points of view and combine them. The “differences” certainly make us all come back though

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time February 6, 2009 at 7:54 AM

The goal is to *have fun!!*

M2 and Getabig — you guys aren’t saying, for example, that it’s a *bad thing* for Dominic to get 3 more rebounds per 48 than the average small forward, are you? Nah, you wouldn’t say something silly like that!

But then, you’re not saying that it’s a bad thing for him to have more assists, more blocks, fewer fouls and fewer turnovers per 48 than an average 3, are you? Nah, you wouldn’t say something silly like that either!

So, you must agree that *in all those categories*, Dominic is better than average (almost 40% better in rebounding). You just think that because he doesn’t score, he can’t be good — right?

That’s how most basketball fans think, btw.

Comment from dcbutler357
Time February 6, 2009 at 8:00 AM

Good Morning Everyone!!

Getabig, TomM, Grif, M2, Wiz4L, JeffM, AJ, Bridge, LilGil, Gdkdc (or something like that, hope you’re enjoying africa) and all other bloggers

Thank you all for the humour, intelligence and break from the norms. During this rough season, it’s entries like the above submissions that keep me coming back and reminding me that this is just part of the “swing of the pendulum.”

Dave and Glenn,
Thanks for the blog!!

Much Luv!!

Comment from Tom Mandel
Time February 6, 2009 at 8:23 AM

Thanks to SportsWiz too!!

Hey, in the next thread I’m proposing we trade away Caron Butler again. I must be nuts, huh? Better take a look.

(Psssst, this time we get Amare Stoudamire for him!!)

Comment from M2
Time February 6, 2009 at 1:41 PM

I’m saying, keep your per 48 min stats… I’m saying, if a guy like Pech comes in & the Wiz are down 20 & the opposing team has their reserves in & their reserves could care less about Pech (or a guy like Pech in the game under similar circumstances) & Pech knocks down a couple threes & grabs a couple rebounds while the opposing team either could care less or didn’t know he was capable so they left him alone, he’s gonna have great per 48 stats… So what?
I think DMC is the beneficiary of a story similar to this…
He got zero burn early in the year…
What burn he did get, he was able to surprise the opposing teams reserves & get decent numbers & a short stay on the court…
He DID HAVE a few big games (which I think is great, & I agree with Gabbo, “he’s a keeper”)…
Now DMC has settled in & the league is scouting him because he starts etc…
Do me a favor, chart his per 48 decline from this point in the season forward as reality strikes while he continues to get more abundant playing time…
It’s not rocket science.
Yes, his numbers are good (& he has a serious upside) but they are also overvalued numbers that need a harder look.

Oh &, I signed on to this blog they day it was launched. I remember it well…
Just didn’t comment much at all (well, at first I did) until this season…